Kanada Dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan \u201crisk-on\u201d hareketiyle g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flasa da, ikinci seansta da kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti. USD\/CAD, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn Ye\u015fil Dolar\u2019daki genel yumu\u015fakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla 1,1411\u2019de iki haftan\u0131n zirvelerinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel piyasalardaki rahatlama rallisi, ABD para birimini \u00e7o\u011fu rakibi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutarken, CAD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri aras\u0131nda en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131 sergiledi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n petrol trafi\u011finin daha serbest i\u015flemesini sa\u011flayabilecek diplomatik bir yola a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Brent, ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerinden 10 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek 85,00 dolar civar\u0131na indi; WTI da e\u015f zamanl\u0131 d\u00f6nerek 82,00 dolara \u00e7ekildi ve enerji ihracat\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 ba\u011fl\u0131 bir para birimini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc veri takvimi sakin seyrederken, odak per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k %33 oran\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlasa da, ana senaryo faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131; y\u00f6nlendirme ve Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli USD y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemesi bekleniyor. Daha sonra, Haziran dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri verisini i\u00e7eren nihai Atlanta Fed GDPNow g\u00fcncellemesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, USD\/CAD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kurun 1,1411 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131, iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlerden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir hafta i\u00e7inde \u00e7ift haneli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olur ve genellikle on be\u015f ila yirmi g\u00fcn s\u00fcrer.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 1,1450 seviyesinin biraz \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip USD\/CAD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kanada toplam ihracat gelirlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini petrole dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, Brent\u2019in 85,00 dolara ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 82,00 dolara ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Loonie\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ciddi bi\u00e7imde bozuyor. Bu emtia zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin %33\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla birle\u015fince, koruyucu CAD put\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki 10 dolarl\u0131k fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131na da bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, ate\u015fkes gibi ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u00e7a s\u0131\u00e7rama yapar ve opsiyon primlerini y\u00fckseltir. \u0130lk \u201crahatlama sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n\u201d ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131n dengelenece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in WTI\u2019da 78,00 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 yazabiliriz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD GSYH verisi ve Fed\u2019in politika metni yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Fed \u015fahin duru\u015funu korur ve ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyalleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rsa, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve USD\/CAD mevcut iki haftal\u0131k zirvelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon al\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\u2019de kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bull call spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ate\u015fkes \u201crisk-on\u201du CAD\u2019i kurtaramad\u0131: petrol 10 dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, USD\/CAD 1,1411\u2019e dayand\u0131. Fed \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; straddle\/strangle, 1,1450 \u00fcst\u00fc call ve petrol opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t