Brent, 13 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sert geriledi ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 90 ABD$\/varil seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi; ABD son iki g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ilave ad\u0131m atmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken \u0130ran da misillemeye ara verdi. Geri \u00e7ekilme, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemi ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda hen\u00fcz anlaml\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesine ra\u011fmen Brent\u2019i bir a\u015famada %7\u2019den fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Pozisyonlanma da de\u011fi\u015fiyor: Petrolde ve ICE gazoylde spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar y\u00fckseldi; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131 ve orta distilatlarda (middle distillates) s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k olurken, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki kesinti riskleri arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019da arz tarafl\u0131 kesintiler art\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Novorossiysk\u2019teki \u015eeskharis terminalinde petrol y\u00fcklemelerinin 21 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana durduruldu\u011fu bildiriliyor; Bloomberg, tesisin bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 650 bin varil\/g\u00fcn sevk etti\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Duru\u015f, son aylarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn sevkiyat yapan CPC terminalindeki petrol y\u00fcklemelerinin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nem, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rusya enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7le \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Brent ham petrol\u00fcn 90 ABD$\/varil seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan net bir y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlanmas\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lardaki son duraklama ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sunsa da, fiyatlardaki bu ani %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trendden ziyade k\u0131sa vadeli bir reaksiyon olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Altta yatan jeopolitik tetikleyiciler son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmaya devam etti\u011finden, \u015fu a\u015famada agresif k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda, Karadeniz\u2019deki ciddi aksamalar fiziksel piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. 21 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u015eeskharis terminalindeki petrol y\u00fcklemelerinin durmas\u0131, 1,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn kapasiteli CPC terminalindeki ask\u0131ya alma ile birlikte piyasadan yakla\u015f\u0131k 650 bin varil\/g\u00fcn arz\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Tarihsel olarak, Karadeniz b\u00f6lgesinde bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki kesintiler k\u00fcresel petrol referanslar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %3 ila %5 yukar\u0131 itebildi.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskleri kritik ticaret hatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimleri tarihsel ortalamalara k\u0131yasla neredeyse %50 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. D\u00fcnyadaki s\u0131v\u0131 petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin her g\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bir toparlanma g\u00f6rmedik\u00e7e, ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleri ve risk primleri y\u00fcksek kalacakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne bel ba\u011flamak yerine, arz kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call options) kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ICE gazoyl ve Brent\u2019te spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlarda, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131 ve orta distilat arz\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi sert bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da izliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, spek\u00fclatif uzunlar\u0131n rafineri darbo\u011fazlar\u0131yla birlikte h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi, fiyatlarda \u201ckurulu yay\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n distilat spread\u2019lerinde uzun e\u011filimi korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durmas\u0131yla %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 90 dolar alt\u0131n\u0131 test etti; ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz riskleri ve Rusya terminal kesintileri arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131yor. Spek\u00fclatif uzunlar artarken volatilite ve h\u0131zl\u0131 geri tepme ihtimali y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t