Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne %7\u2019yi a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyatlar, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafta sonu boyunca sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara vermesiyle geriledi; bu durum, t\u0131rmanma riskine ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli endi\u015feleri azaltt\u0131. Ara verilmesi, b\u00f6lgesel tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilecek diplomatik bir s\u00fcrece y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ticari deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nihayetinde yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na destek olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc besledi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD de, azalan \u00f6nleyici f\u00fcze (interceptor) stoklar\u0131 ve \u0130ran i\u00e7inde kalan y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli hedef say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131yla askeri harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu. Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Orgeneral Dan Caine\u2019in, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fchimmat rezervlerini zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. ABD\u2019nin BM B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Mike Waltz, Washington g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere alan a\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u201chaz\u0131r ve tetikte\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde Tahran\u2019\u0131n tutumunu \u201csald\u0131r\u0131ya sald\u0131r\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Yemen\u2019deki \u0130ran destekli Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fcstlendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, arz risklerine ili\u015fkin temkin s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek 82,50 dolar civar\u0131na inmesiyle jeopolitik risk priminin h\u0131zla eridi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki bu ani duraklama, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda z\u0131mni volatilitede (IV) sert bir daralmay\u0131 muhtemel k\u0131l\u0131yor. Prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 stratejilerle bir \u201cvolatilite ezilmesi\u201d (volatility crush) senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde petrol volatilite endekslerinin (OVX) d\u00fczenli olarak s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p diplomasinin devreye girmesiyle h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi tarihsel e\u011filimlerle de destekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD ham petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,4 milyon varil seviyesinde seyretmesi dahil g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel arz, fiziksel k\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fmadan fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine temel olarak s\u0131n\u0131r koyuyor. Bu arz tamponunun, pahal\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada cazip olmayan bir bahis haline getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyat y\u00f6n\u00fcne oynamak isteyenler i\u00e7in, 78 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru yava\u015f bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedefleyen ay\u0131 (bear) put spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Z\u0131mni volatilitedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle, \u00e7\u0131plak uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 muhtemelen h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybedecektir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalarken volatilite ezilmesinin etkisini azaltmak i\u00e7in spread stratejilerinin tercih edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, Husilerin Suudi Arabistan tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de olsa taban bir risk unsuru olarak kal\u0131yor. Bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde, al\u0131m opsiyonu talebinde ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve esnek tutmak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi durumunda h\u0131zl\u0131 uyum sa\u011flamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde sert geri \u00e7ekilme: WTI %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 82,50 dolarda. ABD-\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verince risk primi eridi, IV\u2019de daralma bekleniyor. Strateji: opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bear put spread; Husiler riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t