Euro, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltmas\u0131yla Pazartesi Avrupa seans\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,36 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1410 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hisse senedi vadeli i\u015flemleri de bu harekete e\u015flik etti; S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %1\u2019e yak\u0131n art\u0131\u015fla 7.485 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselirken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,25 gerileyerek 101,20\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti. Duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD ordusunun \u0130ran i\u00e7in hedef listesinin t\u00fckendi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki askeri eylemlerde verilen aray\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 bulunuyor; Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise dikkatler, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenen bir veri olan Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) verisinin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ECB ileti\u015fimi, enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret ederken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lara at\u0131f yap\u0131larak enflasyonun 2027\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar hedefin \u00fczerinde kalabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1410\u2019a do\u011fru ilerlemesi ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,20\u2019ye gerilemesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli momentumu yakalamas\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir ortam g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimlerdeki ge\u00e7ici duraksama, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir risk-on rallisini tetikleyerek S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemlerini 7.485\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in Euro\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip ediliyor; faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n %3,50 ile %3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi geri plana itmesi nedeniyle, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir mesaj gelmesi halinde d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda volatilitede ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131yla bu belirsizlikten faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP enflasyon verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve bu veri ECB\u2019nin bir sonraki faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu 2027\u2019ye kadar y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, Euro\u2019nun getiri g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6rece \u015fahin kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artabilecek para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli EUR call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Askeri aran\u0131n piyasan\u0131n korku g\u00f6stergesini so\u011futmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, jeopolitik riskler uyar\u0131 vermeden yeniden alevlenebilir. Tarihsel olarak ani petrol ve enerji \u015foklar\u0131, yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 i\u015flem seans\u0131nda hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki ima edilen volatilitenin %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc risk-on duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ani tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in S&P 500\u2019de ucuz, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli \u015fekilde biriktirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcnce Euro g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: EUR\/USD 1,1410\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karken DXY 101,20\u2019ye indi, S&P 500 vadeli 7.485\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de, ECB i\u00e7in HICP kritik. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t