USD\/CHF, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki 13 g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafta sonu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara verilen aran\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131yla, be\u015f g\u00fcnd\u00fcr s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc uzatt\u0131 ve Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,8150 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD, \u00f6nleyici f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ve geriye kalan hedef setinin daralmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler nedeniyle sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdururken, haberlerde General Dan Caine\u2019in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc operasyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin m\u00fchimmat rezervlerini zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu belirtildi. Piyasalar buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi tesislerine sald\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 arz risklerini izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler para politikas\u0131nda da; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini, ard\u0131ndan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bekliyor, ancak baz\u0131 fiyatlamalarda bu hafta bir ad\u0131m ihtimali de yer al\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD verileri aras\u0131nda 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc verisi, PCE enflasyon verileri ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerden bilan\u00e7olar bulunuyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda ise gerileyen yurti\u00e7i tahvil getirileri CHF\u2019ye deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re devlet tahvili getirisi %0,46 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, daha uzun vadeli referans noktas\u0131 2011\u20132015 EUR \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; bu \u00e7\u0131pan\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 para biriminde %20\u2019yi a\u015fan bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019nin mevcut \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyesi olan 0,8150 civar\u0131ndan tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fine (rebound) pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki ge\u00e7ici duraklaman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken, beklenmedik g\u00fcvenli liman s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bull call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, USD uzun (long) stratejisini belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %0,46 civar\u0131na gerilerken, g\u00f6sterge ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor ve 2026 ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla %4,0 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. 350 baz puan\u0131 a\u015fan bu getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel sermayeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili Frank\u2019tan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, Fed\u2019in bu hafta faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131yla yeniden Dolar\u2019a y\u00f6nlendirmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik son Husi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z; bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmeler \u0130svi\u00e7re para birimine ani g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015flerini tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/CHF\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanabilir. Tarihsel olarak Frank, k\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde sert oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir; \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kur \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131 ani \u015fekilde terk etmesi sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan me\u015fhur %20\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama buna \u00f6rnektir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na giden patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc verisi ve PCE enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek veriler, Dolar\u2019\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirerek USD\/CHF\u2019de toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u00fcksek etkili veriler \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesini makul d\u00fczeyde tutmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8150\u2019de: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131larken, 350 bp faiz fark\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu tepki potansiyeli sunuyor. Strateji: bull call spread, OTM put korumas\u0131; g\u00f6zler GSYH-PCE ve Husi riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t