Alt\u0131n pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc seans i\u00e7i zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fle a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat bo\u015flu\u011funu (gap) korudu; ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.025 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunmakta zorlan\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131 ile ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla fiyatlar g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bir ara %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselirken, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki iki gecelik sald\u0131r\u0131 molas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltt\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn %5 d\u00fc\u015fmesi enflasyon endi\u015felerini so\u011futmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar, sal\u0131 ba\u015flayacak ve karar\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kald\u0131; ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftal\u0131k sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma ak\u015fam\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini tartt\u0131. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %33 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran 10 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %12 seviyesindeydi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte XAU\/USD 4.090,11 dolarda; 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.069,60 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ancak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.221,95 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.469,47 ve 4.493,66 dolarda bulunarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc bask\u0131l\u0131yor. RSI (14) 48 civar\u0131nda ve 22 Temmuz\u2019da Bear Cross teyit edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n bu haftaki kritik Federal Rezerv karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.090 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Piyasa \u015fu anda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %33 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran sadece on g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %12 idi. Bu ortamda, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli duraklama petrol\u00fc %5 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f olsa da jeopolitik risk son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez kalmaya devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik \u015foklar, alt\u0131n\u0131n tek seansta %3 ila %5 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; ge\u00e7mi\u015f Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcvenli liman rallilerine benzer \u015fekilde. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; burada ya\u015fanacak ani bir toparlanma alt\u0131n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 22 Temmuz\u2019da 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle teyit edilen \u201cBear Cross\u201d sinyali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Bu g\u00f6sterge tarihsel olarak daha uzun vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret eder; 4.222 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bear put spread pozisyonlar\u0131na kademeli giri\u015f \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta, 4.069 dolardaki kritik 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 otomatik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Fed\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 halinde, bu destek seviyesinin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu senaryoya, 4.069 dolar seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na zarar\u0131 durdur (stop-loss) emirleri koyarak haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n 4.090 dolarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Dolar ve tahvil getirileri gev\u015fese de ABD-\u0130ran molas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Fed\u2019de %33 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor; Bear Cross bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t