USD\/IDR, \u00f6nceki seanstaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geri alarak Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 18.050 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Rupiah, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank Indonesia\/BI) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Perry Warjiyo\u2019nun beklenmedik \u015fekilde istifa etmesi ve K\u0131demli Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Destry Damayanti\u2019nin ge\u00e7ici ba\u015fkan olarak atanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi; merkez banka ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ki\u015fisel nedenlerle oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, kurumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin incelemeleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirirken, k\u0131sa vadede kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/IDR\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminde, 13 g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafta sonu verilen ara ile tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ancak risk g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; \u0130ran destekli Yemen\u2019deki Husiler, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi tesislerini hedef ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nleyici f\u00fcze (interceptor) stoklar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler ve \u0130ran\u2019da vurulacak hedeflerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurdu\u011fu bildirildi; General Dan Caine\u2019in de Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131, uzayan bir kampanyan\u0131n m\u00fchimmat rezervlerini zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yeniden art\u0131r\u0131mlara d\u00f6nece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; bununla birlikte baz\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz bir karar ihtimalini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmiyor. Odakta ayr\u0131ca 2\u00c7 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH, PCE enflasyonu ve ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/IDR\u2019nin 18.050 civar\u0131nda emsalsiz seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinden yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, BI\u2019deki ani liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin genellikle 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitede %15 ila %20 art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici ba\u015fkan\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te Rupiah\u2019daki ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, de\u011fi\u015fen politika beklentilerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu hafta \u00e7o\u011funluk bir \u201cpas\u201d beklentisi i\u00e7inde olsa da, Fed Funds vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u015fu anda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa %15 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in sabit kalmas\u0131 ve piyasa endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131 durumunda getiri elde etmek i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ge\u00e7i\u015f risklerinin artmas\u0131yla, Brent petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki nakliye kanallar\u0131 aktif tehditlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enerji volatilite endeksleri %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7r\u0131yor. Al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131, prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutarken olas\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n i\u00e7 piyasadaki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Endonezya Rupiah\u2019\u0131 forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle kurlar\u0131 sabitlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 belirsizli\u011finin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde, onshore ve offshore forwardlar aras\u0131ndaki spread 300 baz puana kadar geni\u015flemi\u015fti. Bu korunmalar\u0131n \u015fimdiden yap\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 18.500 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir kaymaya kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvence sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz BI istifas\u0131 Rupiah\u2019\u0131 vurdu, USD\/IDR 18.050\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131; oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor. Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, Fed ve Ortado\u011fu riskleri odakta: straddle, call, Brent opsiyonu, forward \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t