ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 (USD) alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda izleyerek, \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 101,20 civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Geri \u00e7ekilme, 13 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda hafta sonu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara verilen ara ile jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131yla geldi. Bununla birlikte, Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi tesislerine sald\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine ili\u015fkin temkinli duru\u015f korundu.<\/p>\n
Haberlerde, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran i\u00e7inde hedef setinin daralmas\u0131 ve \u00f6nleme f\u00fczesi stoklar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na dair endi\u015feler nedeniyle sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Orgeneral Dan Caine\u2019in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131, harek\u00e2t\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kritik m\u00fchimmat rezervlerini ciddi bi\u00e7imde zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Para politikas\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in (Federal Reserve) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde geni\u015f bir beklenti bulunurken, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ancak az\u0131nl\u0131k bir kesim s\u00fcrpriz bir hamle ihtimalini de canl\u0131 tutuyor. Ard\u0131ndan odak, 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc verisi, PCE enflasyonu ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD \u015firketlerinin finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi kritik 101,20 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n volatilitede ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 100-101 band\u0131 DXY i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir psikolojik taban g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini tetikledi. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u201cara\u201d dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tek bir y\u00f6ne angaje olmadan ani fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bu \u00c7ar\u015famba yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131s\u0131 bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r; piyasa beklentileri belirgin bi\u00e7imde faizlerin sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin bir ton beklenmesi nedeniyle, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyonlanmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in gelecekte agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret etmesi halinde, dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme g\u00f6r\u00fclerek tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, dolar\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini ve PCE enflasyonu verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Tarihsel olarak \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019deki beklenmedik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar, veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen saatlerde dolar\u0131 ortalama %0,5 ila %1 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu t\u00fcr makro kaynakl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD ve USD\/JPY gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde limit emirler kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ge\u00e7i\u015fini ve Suudi altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 nedeniyle enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde aktif korunma ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu b\u00f6lgedeki jeopolitik aksakl\u0131klar tarihsel olarak Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131r; bu da genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Yeniden t\u0131rmanma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 petrolde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ya da USD bazl\u0131 emtia proxy\u2019lerinin korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY 101,20\u2019de kritik tabanda: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesiyle gerilerken Husi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 arz riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Fed sabit bekleniyor, Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Straddle ve enerji korumas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t