Sterlin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3300\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti. Dolar\u2019daki geri \u00e7ekilme, USD Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) ge\u00e7en hafta yeniden test etti\u011fi ayl\u0131k zirveden gerilemesiyle geldi. Piyasalar, be\u015f ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda diplomatik bir s\u00fcrecin yeniden canlanabilece\u011fine dair beklentilere tepki verdi. ABD, \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik 13 gece \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fczenlenen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma gecesi bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131na ara verirken, \u0130ran da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ABD m\u00fcttefiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik risk priminin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman Dolar\u2019a olan talep zay\u0131flad\u0131; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ise enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyata ili\u015fkin k\u0131s\u0131tlar, petroldeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmelerinin Dolar\u2019\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi ve GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde etkili olmas\u0131 beklenen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde de temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerdeki ani de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011ferlendirirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur 1,3350\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken, Sterlin\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sekteye u\u011framas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ayl\u0131k zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi\u011finde\u2014halen 101,50 ile 102,00 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda destek test edilirken\u2014\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca enerji t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz; Orta Do\u011fu arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin hafiflemesiyle Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolara do\u011fru geriledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlarda ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerini kullanabilir. Bununla birlikte, Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyata y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zla sert bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fini tetikleyebilece\u011fini dikkate alarak bu pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle temkinli kalmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015fan Fed politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) opsiyonlar\u0131yla risklerini hedge etmelerini tavsiye ediyoruz. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklentilerinde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor; bu da tarihsel olarak Dolar\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. USD \u00fczerinde straddle stratejileri kurarak, Fed y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirdi\u011finde piyasan\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 elde edilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, zay\u0131flayan Dolar ve azalan jeopolitik riskle GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3350\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Fed faiz beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. FOMC \u00f6ncesi opsiyon\/straddle, Brent\u2019te bear put spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t