Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi Asya seans\u0131nda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.103 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek y\u00fckseli\u015fini ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Hareket, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda hafta sonu askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara verilen aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc izledi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Odak \u015fimdi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek yo\u011fun bir makro ve politika g\u00fcndemine kay\u0131yor. Piyasalar; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) kararlar\u0131n\u0131, ABD GSYH ve ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu gibi kritik verilerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Avustralya\u2019dan gelecek T\u00dcFE verileriyle birlikte fiyatl\u0131yor. Jeopolitik cephede ise ABD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik iki haftal\u0131k bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131; Tahran da Washington\u2019un Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki m\u00fcttefiklerine y\u00f6nelik misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan art arda ikinci gece ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Reuters ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201csald\u0131r\u0131ya sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durarsa operasyonlar\u0131n da duraca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na tarihi 4.103 dolar e\u015fi\u011fi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki ani duraklama petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; ancak m\u00fczakerelerin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 halinde bu ge\u00e7ici rahatlama h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilir. Bu t\u00fcr ani jeopolitik kaymalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli sabit bir y\u00f6n taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne girmeden h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamaya imk\u00e2n veren k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Fed, BoE ve BoJ\u2019un bu hafta toplant\u0131 yapacak olmas\u0131, para politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini zirveye ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD GSYH ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu verileri, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faizleri sabit tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da indirime gidip gitmeyece\u011fi konusunda belirleyici olabilir; bu da do\u011frudan alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cgetiri\u201d cazibesini etkiler. Verinin hangi y\u00f6nde gelece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, straddle gibi uzun oynakl\u0131k stratejilerinin kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n karar haftalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ortalama haftal\u0131k %3 ila %5 aras\u0131 fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131 sergileme e\u011filimindedir. Son iki y\u0131ldaki benzer y\u00fcksek riskli makro haftalara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nde (GVZ) geni\u015flemeye pozisyon alman\u0131n y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir i\u015flem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in 4.050 dolar destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) uygulanmas\u0131 kritik olacakt\u0131r. Enflasyon verilerinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesi halinde alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir teknik d\u00fczeltmeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131ndan g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret eden her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sinyalin, 4.200 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum al\u0131m\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.103 dolarda zirveye tutunuyor: ABD-\u0130ran molas\u0131 petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kertti, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 hafifledi. Bu hafta Fed-BoE-BoJ ve PCE\/GSYH verisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 patlatabilir; opsiyonlarda straddle, GVZ\u2019de geni\u015fleme \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t