EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011funu (gap) geni\u015fleterek 1,1400 seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, be\u015finci ay\u0131na giren ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n diplomasiyle sona erebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik yeniden canlanan umutlarla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Washington, \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik 13 gece \u00fcst \u00fcste s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131na ara verdi; Tahran da buna paralel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ABD m\u00fcttefiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, g\u00fcvenli liman USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
Gerilimin azalmas\u0131, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da sert bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu dinamik, ge\u00e7en hafta yeniden test edilen ayl\u0131k zirve b\u00f6lgesi \u00e7evresinden ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131n\u0131n sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed politika karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler, dolara k\u0131sa vadeli talebi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fi ve EUR\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenmeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcn EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1400 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na verilen ani ara, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 104,50 civar\u0131ndaki son ayl\u0131k zirvesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde momentumdaki bu ani de\u011fi\u015fimden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketleri yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli (short-dated) straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
FOMC\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklendi\u011fi ortamda, a\u00e7\u0131klama hemen sonras\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131kta (implied volatility) potansiyel bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak EUR\/USD\u2019nin bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yak\u0131ndan izlenen Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genellikle %15 ila %20 artma e\u011filiminde olur; ancak politika y\u00f6n\u00fc netle\u015fince h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geriler. \u0130lk piyasa tepkisi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra iron condor veya takvim spreadleri (calendar spreads) ile prim satarak bu tipik \u201cvolatility crush\u201dtan faydalan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yak\u0131n zamanda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerileyerek yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekilen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerini de belirgin bi\u00e7imde yumu\u015fatt\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri Fed \u00fczerindeki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadede dolar (greenback) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7in 1,1550 seviyesini hedefleyen Euro\u2019da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) alarak ifade edebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zellikle Hammack ve Logan gibi \u015fahin (hawkish) politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelebilecek olas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 oylarla b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir Fed ihtimalinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fine de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr i\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i ani trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini tetikleyerek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u0131f\u0131rlayabilir. Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019tan s\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin bir ton gelmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, t\u00fcm spot pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri korunmal\u0131 ve opsiyon kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131 kesin \u015fekilde kontroll\u00fc tutulmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: EUR\/USD 1,1400 \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes umudu dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131, petrol sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Fed bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. FOMC \u00f6ncesi straddle, sonras\u0131 \u201cvolatility crush\u201d taktikleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t