WTI haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) bo\u015flu\u011fuyla ba\u015flad\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen 92,25 dolarl\u0131k zirveden geri \u00e7ekildi; bu seviye 8 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydi. Asya seans\u0131nda d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra dengelendi ve 84,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 ekside kald\u0131. Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik 13 gece \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fczenlenen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma gecesi bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131na ara vermesi ve buna paralel olarak Tahran\u2019\u0131n misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya almas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle geldi; bu durum, be\u015f ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 jeopolitik risk primini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, arz rotalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndaki Suudi petrol tesislerini hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 26 Temmuz\u2019da Bab el-Mandeb\u2019den ge\u00e7en trafik gerilerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar k\u00fcresel petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olas\u0131 kesinti endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tuttu. Zemin ayr\u0131ca Rusya-Ukrayna hatt\u0131nda artan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, CPC terminalindeki kesintileri ve rekor seviyede s\u0131k\u0131 dizel piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki duruma ili\u015fkin daha net sinyaller beklenirken bu unsurlar ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerine destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin jeopolitik gerilimleri ge\u00e7ici olarak yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 84,00 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zla geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ani de\u011fi\u015fim, ima edilen volatilitede sert bir daralmay\u0131 tetikledi ve uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a riskli hale getirdi. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu kovalamak i\u00e7in pahal\u0131 put al\u0131m\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira prim zaten h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde eriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak WTI ham petrol, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulur; bu seviye \u015fu anda 78-80 dolar band\u0131na yak\u0131n. Ayr\u0131ca 26 Temmuz\u2019da Husi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en fiili sevkiyat hacimleri belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da fiziksel arz\u0131n son derece s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu fiziksel k\u0131s\u0131tlar nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlarda tam bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu karma ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bull put spread gibi n\u00f6trden y\u00fckseli\u015f yanl\u0131s\u0131na opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 80 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put satarak; son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek primi toplarken, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flanabilir. B\u00f6ylece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc ralliyi zorunlu k\u0131lmadan, y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatilite s\u0131ralamas\u0131ndan (IV rank) faydalanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak EIA stok raporunu izlememiz gerekiyor; bu rapor, y\u00fcksek sapma g\u00fcnlerinde tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde oynatabiliyor. ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 440 milyon varillik be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmeye devam ederse, olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrprizi k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc vadeli pozisyonlara girmeden \u00f6nce pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc stok verisinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: WTI 92,25$ zirvesinden 84$\u2019a %6 geriledi; ABD-\u0130ran tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, risk primi azald\u0131. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Bab el-Mandeb arz endi\u015fesi taban. Strateji: bull put spread, EIA stok takibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t