USD\/JPY, Japon Yeni\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin hafta sonu \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmama karar\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n misillemeye ara vermesinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek bulmas\u0131yla, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 163,60 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcnde de sakin seyretti. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, para birimini enerji maliyetlerindeki dalgalanmalara ve olas\u0131 arz kesintisi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 hassas tutuyor. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da misilleme aras\u0131n\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmesi sonucu geriledi. Bu ara, 13 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelirken; \u0130ran destekli Yemen\u2019deki Husiler\u2019in K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi tesislerine sald\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi nedeniyle endi\u015feler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yurti\u00e7i siyaset de bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131: Yomiuri\u2019ye g\u00f6re Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019nin onay oran\u0131, ya\u015fam maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 ve Yen\u2019in 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6neme e\u015flik eden geni\u015fleyici politika alt\u0131nda tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle, Temmuz\u2019da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6reve gelmesinden bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi. Haberlere g\u00f6re Washington, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131smen \u00f6nleyici f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckenmesine y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar ve \u0130ran\u2019daki hedef setinin daralmas\u0131 nedeniyle durdurdu; ayr\u0131ca General Dan Caine\u2019in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, operasyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin kritik m\u00fchimmat rezervleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu bildirildi. Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) da Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bekle-g\u00f6r tutumunu korumas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 163,60 band\u0131 etraf\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki ge\u00e7ici mola, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine Yeni desteklese de altta yatan jeopolitik ve makro dinamikler son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu hafta kritik merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya, ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131; bu da Yeni ani enerji arz\u0131 kesintilerine son derece duyarl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olsa da, Husiler\u2019in Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz tesislerine y\u00f6nelik devam eden sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 petrol\u00fc h\u0131zla yeniden yukar\u0131 itebilir. Orta Do\u011fu enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n vurulmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in, ani bir Yen de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 (hedge) olarak vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu haftaki merkez bankas\u0131 takvimi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir volatilite tetikleyicisi konumunda. Her iki kurumun da \u015fimdilik faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 genel beklenti olsa da, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek olas\u0131 \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz USD\/JPY\u2019yi son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerinin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Prim maliyetini \u015fi\u015firmeden toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 ilk tepkileri yakalamak i\u00e7in, opsiyon vadelerinin k\u0131sa tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bir-iki haftal\u0131k kontratlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019nin sert d\u00fc\u015fen onay oran\u0131 Japon devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir i\u00e7 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Geni\u015fleyici maliye politikalar\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) getirilerini \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da Yen a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Getirilerdeki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n Yen carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131nda sert \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleri tetikleyece\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petroldeki geri \u00e7ekilme ve jeopolitik molayla USD\/JPY 163,60\u2019ta sakin; ancak Husiler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131 ve Fed-BoJ haftas\u0131 sert volatiliteyi tetikleyebilir: straddle ve OTM call hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t