G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si, mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek %0,4\u2019l\u00fck Bloomberg beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; ilk \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,8 olmu\u015ftu. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise \u00fcretim %3,7 artarak %3,5\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; \u00f6nceki veri %3,8 idi. Commerzbank dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yar\u0131 iletken talebi ve istikrarl\u0131 yurti\u00e7i harcamalara ba\u011flarken, Ekonomi ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131m beklentileriyle 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %2,0\u2019dan %3,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n
GSYH s\u00fcrprizi, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f daha beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu art\u0131\u015f, Bank of Korea politika faizini 27 A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %3,0\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yacak. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda USD\/KRW %0,2 gerileyerek 1.475\u2019e indi; veri sonras\u0131 anl\u0131k %0,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan seans i\u00e7inde hareketin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Won ayr\u0131ca portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleriyle de destek buldu; yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu hafta \u015fu ana kadar 1,0 milyar USD tutar\u0131nda yerel tahvil ve 3,7 milyar USD tutar\u0131nda hisse senedi al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda G\u00fcney Kore wonunun y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu durum, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/KRW\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 Bank of Korea\u2019n\u0131n 27 A\u011fustos\u2019ta faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,0\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan ve kurdaki temel g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/KRW put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta G\u00fcney Kore hisse senetlerine 3,7 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015f, \u00fclkenin teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel i\u015ftah\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ivme, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 \u00e7ip patlamas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor ve \u00f6nceki teknoloji y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen yar\u0131 iletken ihracat\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k %50\u2019lere varan s\u0131\u00e7ramalarla paralellik ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye dalgas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in KOSPI 200 endeksi \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonu stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, getiriler y\u00fckselirken bile yerel tahvillere 1,0 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcveninin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar A\u011fustos faiz karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in G\u00fcney Kore faiz swaplar\u0131nda \u201cpayer\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlara girebilir. Bu strateji, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 duru\u015funun fiyatlanmas\u0131yla yerel getirilerin yukar\u0131 ayarlanmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/KRW\u2019nin 1.475\u2019e kadar sert gerilemesi, piyasan\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in g\u00fcncellenen %3,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminine h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k potansiyeli g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruman\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, wonun temel de\u011ferlenmesine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken riski etkin bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n