Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi, ancak NZD\/USD\u2019nin 0,5800 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131yla kazan\u00e7lar zay\u0131fl\u0131yordu. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,5767 dip seviyesinden toparland\u0131ktan sonra 0,5789\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 0,5793\u2019te yer alan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya do\u011fru bask\u0131 yap\u0131yordu; bu ortalama, yuvarlak seviye olan 0,5800\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn toparlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, NZD\/USD 29 May\u0131s zirvesi olan 0,5995\u2019i yeniden ele ge\u00e7iremedik\u00e7e genel e\u011filim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. RSI y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olsa da zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve ay\u0131 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131yordu. 0,5800 \u00fczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 0,5823\u2019te yak\u0131nsayan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirecek; ard\u0131ndan 21 Temmuz zirvesi 0,5874, sonras\u0131nda 0,5900 direnci ve 0,6000\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndaki 29 May\u0131s zirvesi izlenecekti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 0,5762\u2019nin alt\u0131na bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 13 Temmuz dibi 0,5743\u2019\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan 0,5700\u2019\u00fc hedeflerken, daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 7 Temmuz zirvesi 0,5672 destek konumunda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu s\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flarken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,5800 diren\u00e7 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 0,5789 civar\u0131nda, 0,5793\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Parite bu kritik e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015famazsa, k\u0131sa delta pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir hamle olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeyle de destekleniyor; resmi nakit oran\u0131 (OCR) \u00f6nceki %5,5 zirvesinden belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi. Tarihsel olarak benzer faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, Kiwi\u2019de uzun s\u00fcreli de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman para birimini tek bir \u00e7eyrekte ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Mevcut t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu tabloyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken, put opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7e iki oran\u0131nda geride b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 0,5762\u2019deki haftal\u0131k dip seviyenin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz; bu durum muhtemelen stop-loss emirlerini tetikleyerek fiyat\u0131 0,5743 ve 0,5700\u2019e do\u011fru itecektir. Di\u011fer taraftan, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 0,5823\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine stop-loss koymal\u0131 veya koruyucu call opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu net teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) i\u015faret etti\u011fi zay\u0131flayan momentum ortam\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvenli hareket etmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n