EUR\/USD, Euro B\u00f6lgesi anketlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1370\u2019e do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,50 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor. Almanya\u2019da temmuz ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI 49,5\u2019ten 51,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek 49,8\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130malat PMI 50,3\u2019ten 52,2\u2019ye iyile\u015firken, hizmet PMI 48,6\u2019dan 49,6\u2019ya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ancak 50,0\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. B\u00f6lge genelinde Bile\u015fik PMI 50,0\u2019den 51,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karak 50,3 tahmininin \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti; imalat 52,0 olurken hizmetler 49,4\u2019ten 51,6\u2019ya toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda S&P Global \u0130malat PMI 54,5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 53,8\u2019e gerilerken, Hizmet PMI 51,2\u2019den 53,6\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 51,0 tahmininin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k tablo ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini destekli tutabilir. Pakistan ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, \u00c7in destekli bir giri\u015fim kapsam\u0131nda ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine dair haberler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Odak, 28\u201329 Temmuz\u2019daki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; faizlerin yeni projeksiyonlar ve dot plot olmadan %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 4 saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD 1,1369\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 20 periyotluk SMA (1,1397) ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (1,1422) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken RSI 37 civar\u0131nda, destekler 1,1368 ve 1,1366 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle paritenin 1,1370 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde zorlanmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u015f aktivitesi verilerinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc pariteyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde tutuyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 1,1366\u20131,1368 band\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n destek k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilece\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1360\u2019\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, y\u00fcksek etkili ekonomik geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Alternatif olarak, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu ortamda prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na ay\u0131 put spread stratejileri de de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
28\u201329 Temmuz\u2019daki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana belirleyicisi olmaya aday; piyasa faizlerin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu toplant\u0131da yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar yer almayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 Dolar Endeksi \u00fczerinde belirleyici olacak; endeks h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 101,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor. Tonlaman\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekir; daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz mesaj\u0131 verecek olas\u0131 sinyaller, Euro\u2019yu daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ay\u0131 senaryosu daha geni\u015f makro verilerle de destekleniyor: Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu son d\u00f6nemde %2,2 civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na, diren\u00e7li ABD ekonomisine k\u0131yasla daha fazla gev\u015feme alan\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan ABD\u2019de hizmet aktivitesi olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Hizmet PMI 53,6\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 51,0 tahmininin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fu a\u015famada dolar\u0131 daha g\u00fcvenli bir tercih haline getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PMI s\u00fcrprizine ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD 1,1370\u2019e \u00e7ekildi: DXY 101,50\u2019de diren\u00e7li. Almanya-Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI\u2019lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ABD hizmet verisi dolar lehine. 1,1366 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa put stratejisi. Fed 28\u201329 Temmuz belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t