Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley, temmuz ay\u0131ndaki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika mesaj\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin tona kaymas\u0131na ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD\u2019nin temkinli seyrini korudu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Euro destek bulamazken, ABD dolar\u0131 ise g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u015fahin beklentilerle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Foley, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha da \u015fiddetlenmesinin bu g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015f \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilece\u011fini de ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem e\u011filimini koruyor. Rabobank, 1-3 ayl\u0131k ufukta EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,14 civar\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. De\u011ferlendirmede ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana euroya olan g\u00fcvenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steren CFTC pozisyonlanma verilerine at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Haberin, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay boyunca EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1400 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 bir bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son \u015fahin sinyallere ra\u011fmen euro, diren\u00e7li ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi yakalayam\u0131yor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n agresif y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma bahislerinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131, bunun yerine bant stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son CFTC haftal\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlanma verileri, net uzun euro kontratlar\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ederek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninde keskin bir gerilemeyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimler taraf\u0131ndan tetikleniyor; s\u00f6z konusu gerilimler g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan \u201cgreenback\u201de y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n likidite aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar Endeksi ortalama %3 ila %5 y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor; bu da eurodaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda vadeli piyasalar, Fed i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir faiz indirimi patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda agresif faiz indirimlerine yaln\u0131zca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k atfederken, bu durum ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini g\u00f6rece destekli tutuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 dinamiklerindeki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, euronun olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme denemelerinin beklenen band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu konsolidasyon ortam\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na prim toplamak amac\u0131yla iron condor veya k\u0131sa strangle gibi n\u00f6tr stratejiler kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,16 \u00fczerinde ve 1,12 alt\u0131nda opsiyon yazarak volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmak, jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcn\u00fcn etkisiyle y\u00fckselen ima edilen volatiliteden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Spot ve vadeli i\u015flemler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7inse, bu koridor i\u00e7indeki k\u0131sa vadeli sal\u0131n\u0131mlardan k\u00e2r elde etmenin en etkili yolu bant i\u00e7i grid i\u015flem stratejileri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ECB\u2019den \u015fahin sinyallere ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD temkinli: Rabobank, \u0130ran gerilimi ve Fed \u015fahinli\u011fiyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, paritenin 1-3 ay 1,14 \u00e7evresinde bantta dalgalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t