Brent yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f olsa da, fiyatlar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilim, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 kesinti riskleri ile Kazakistan\u2019\u0131n ihracat\u0131 durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkilerle destek buluyor. Arz risk primi, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ihtimaline yap\u0131lan at\u0131flarla da g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, ham petrol; Husilerin Suudi tankerlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fine dair yorumlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 100 dolara yak\u0131n seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Kurumsal enerji ak\u0131mlar\u0131 tasfiyeden yeniden birikime d\u00f6nd\u00fc; Mart\u2019taki yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s ve Haziran\u2019daki toparlanma s\u00fcrecini takiben Temmuz ay\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. En son haftal\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde ABD enerji ak\u0131m g\u00f6stergeleri 83. persentilde, ayl\u0131k g\u00f6sterge ise 90. persentile y\u00fckselirken, toplam enerji pozisyonlar\u0131 Mart\u2013Temmuz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 17. persentilde kald\u0131. Petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyon ve faiz endi\u015felerine de yans\u0131rken; piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD ve Almanya tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan jeopolitik tehditler e\u015fli\u011finde 100 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden enerjiye agresif \u015fekilde geri al\u0131m yaparken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun devam edebilece\u011fi alan\u0131n kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015f oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu kurumsal ak\u0131mlar\u0131n kalabal\u0131kla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk primleri h\u0131zla y\u00fckselirken, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin de belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu volatilite geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa call spreadleri veya do\u011frudan uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2022\u2019de Brent\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k 139 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, call opsiyonu skew\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini ve erken al\u0131nan y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut pozisyonlama verileri, haftal\u0131k kurumsal al\u0131mlar\u0131n 83. persentile s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak toplam enerji pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 yaln\u0131zca 17. persentilinde oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bu belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat taban\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, gelir odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa put yazma stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, s\u00fcregelen arz kesintileri ve Kazakistan\u2019\u0131n devam eden ihracat durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi y\u00fcksek primlerin tahsil edilmesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 do\u011frudan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 besleyip k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken, daha geni\u015f makro \u00e7er\u00e7eveye de bakmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, uzun petrol pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlarla e\u015fle\u015ftirmeyi veya uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu iki bacakl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m, kal\u0131c\u0131 petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tipik olarak e\u015flik etti\u011fi y\u00fckselen faiz ortam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent 100 dolara yak\u0131n: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2013H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kesinti riski ve Kazakistan arz \u015foku fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor. Kurumsal al\u0131m h\u0131zlan\u0131rken opsiyonlarda bo\u011fa call spread\/uzun call, gelir i\u00e7in OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t