USD\/CHF Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinde hafif bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f pariteye destek verdi. Parite 0,8166 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek, Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 0,8185\u2019ten geri \u00e7ekildi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,35 seviyelerinde olup g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,10 geriledi. Jeopolitik cephede Donald Trump, \u015ei Cinping ve Vladimir Putin\u2019in kendisine \u00fclkelerinin \u0130ran\u2019a silah tedarik etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini belirtti. \u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 ise Pakistan ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin giri\u015fimler ve \u00f6nerileri kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Washington\u2019un yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da bir engel olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilese de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab el-Mendeb \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu ay genelinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 y\u00fckseli\u015fini korudu. WTI, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 92,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 87,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. CME FedWatch Tool, Fed\u2019in 28-29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. S&P Global\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fc Bile\u015fik PMI verisi Temmuz\u2019da 51,9\u2019dan 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; Hizmet PMI 51,2\u2019den 53,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, \u0130malat PMI ise 53,9\u2019dan 53,8\u2019e hafif geriledi. Fed, %2 enflasyon hedefliyor ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 etkilemek i\u00e7in QE veya QT ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da kullanabiliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8166 civar\u0131nda, Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paritede artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde 87,50 dolara do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilme, dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlasa da, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler dolar lehine deste\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli; ani g\u00fcvenli liman dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in 0,8120 destek seviyesi civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes kullanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 y\u00fckselmesi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019i para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n, Fed gelecek haftaki 28-29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutsa bile, piyasada Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in olu\u015fan %80\u2019lik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini olduk\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl sonuna vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosuna pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler, dolar lehine beklentimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bunun en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi, ABD S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 8 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi oldu. Bu ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019ndeki \u015fahinle\u015fme e\u011filimiyle birle\u015fince ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,35 civar\u0131nda dengede kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak dolar\u0131 desteklemesi nedeniyle, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran ve kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren diplomatik arabuluculuk \u00e7abalar\u0131 nedeniyle ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir h\u0131zl\u0131 gerilimin azalmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 75 dolar\/varil band\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekebilir ve dolar\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilir. Bu riski dengelemek i\u00e7in, ani g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelmesine kar\u015f\u0131, portf\u00f6yde k\u0131sa vadeli CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla koruma (hedge) bulundurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8166\u2019da yatay, 0,8185 zirvesinden \u00e7ekildi. Petrol gev\u015fese de jeopolitik risk s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %80 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, PMI 53,6: dolar pozitif, 0,8120 stop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t