Y\u00fckselen ABD ve k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri, jeopolitik risk ve artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla birle\u015ferek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentileri de talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. DXY, \u00f6nceki zirvesi olan 101,80\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131yor; bu seviyenin \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelim, yukar\u0131 momentumun artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, gecelik endeks swap (OIS) fiyatlamas\u0131 gelecek hafta bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfederken, Japonya getirileri de Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) kademeli politika normalle\u015fmesine devam etmesiyle y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek-\u00e7ekirdek (core-core) \u00fclke geneli T\u00dcFE haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; ge\u00e7ici sapmalar\u0131 ay\u0131klayan d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ise may\u0131sta %2,7 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son yar\u0131y\u0131ll\u0131k raporu hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkeyi kur manip\u00fclasyonu ile su\u00e7lamad\u0131; ancak yenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa at\u0131fta bulunarak para politikas\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinin enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamaya ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak Axios, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131\u201d de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini ve \u201ckarar vermeye yak\u0131n\u201d oldu\u011funu bildirdi; bu durum, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC \u00f6ncesinde hafta sonu olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Tahvil getirilerindeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ve t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimlerin etkisiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yeniden %4,40 seviyesine y\u00f6nelirken, dolar maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sa\u011flam bir zemin buluyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, hafta sonu olas\u0131 askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n verece\u011fi tepkiyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u015fu anda son aylarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan 101,80\u2019deki kritik diren\u00e7 seviyesini test ediyor. Bu bariyerin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, jeopolitik riskin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde DXY\u2019nin \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7leri k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde momentumun \u00e7o\u011fu zaman h\u0131zl\u0131 %2 ila %3\u2019l\u00fck rallileri tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da core-core enflasyon haziranda %1,7\u2019de kalsa da, BoJ\u2019un yava\u015f faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 temposu yeni korumakta yetersiz kal\u0131yor. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 istisnai \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, USD\/JPY\u2019nin kademeli \u015fekilde daha yukar\u0131 t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ilave alan g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken istikrarl\u0131 yukar\u0131 e\u011filimi yakalamak ad\u0131na USD\/JPY\u2019de bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bir sonraki Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131 29 Temmuz\u2019da planlanm\u0131\u015fken, piyasa \u015fu anda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %35 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor. Hafta sonu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f endi\u015feleri nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha da s\u0131\u00e7rarsa, bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve dolar\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 muhtemel. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla, haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri, jeopolitik gerilim ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 DXY\u2019yi 101,80 direncine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fed\u2019e %35 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131rken, BoJ normalle\u015fmesiyle USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t