EUR\/USD, \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etse de Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri ve merkez bankas\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fe ra\u011fmen 1,1400 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Temmuz bile\u015fik PMI, 50,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisi ve \u00f6nceki 50,0 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k be\u015f ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 51,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; bu art\u0131\u015f, hizmetler faaliyetindeki iyile\u015fme ile birlikte imalat \u00fcretim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki h\u0131zlanmay\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131. Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve daha y\u00fcksek enflasyona y\u00f6nelik riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir unsur olarak g\u00f6sterildi; bu durum, olas\u0131 toparlanma rallilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ECB, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d olarak nitelenen bir kararla politikay\u0131 %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu; baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler art\u0131\u015f\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilip de\u011ferlendirilmeyece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olsa da oylama oy birli\u011fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Piyasalar 10 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %90 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatl\u0131yor ve swap e\u011frisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile faizin %3,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, politika faizini ECB\u2019nin tahmini n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan %1,75\u2013%3,00 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yacak; s\u00f6z konusu patika, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretmekten ziyade eurodaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma beklentisiyle pozisyon almak yerine, s\u0131k\u0131 ve bant i\u00e7inde bir EUR\/USD piyasas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131ndaki 51,9\u2019a s\u00fcrpriz s\u0131\u00e7rama ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etse de, parite h\u00e2l\u00e2 1,1400 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flamada zorlan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Euro i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn g\u00f6rece iyi korundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; zira ECB \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek politika faizini %2,25\u2019te tutuyor ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu parasal destek, b\u00f6lgesel tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fle birle\u015fti\u011finde, euroya y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n zaman de\u011feri kayb\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. 1,1200 ana destek seviyesi korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, kullan\u0131ms\u0131z (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD put satman\u0131n gelir \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layarak stagflasyon riskini tetikleyebilece\u011finden, euroda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli beklemiyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, kilit diren\u00e7 seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda h\u0131zla s\u00f6n\u00fcmleniyor. Bu nedenle, 1,1400\u2019e yak\u0131n ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz swap piyasalar\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin terminal faizine ili\u015fkin fiyatlamay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda %3,00\u2019e kadar 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flarsa, piyasa bu faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karabilir ve bu da euroyu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. K\u0131sa vadenin ECB\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011fiyle g\u00f6rece sabit kal\u0131rken uzun vadenin zay\u0131f uzun d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yans\u0131tmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Euro B\u00f6lgesi getiri e\u011frisinde daha yatay (flatter) bir e\u011fri y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD, PMI s\u00fcrprizi ve ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funa ra\u011fmen 1,1400 alt\u0131nda: petrol kaynakl\u0131 stagflasyon riski ralliyi t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Strateji: bant i\u00e7i opsiyonlar (iron condor), 1,1200 \u00fcst\u00fcnde OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; 1,1400\u2019de put al\u0131m\u0131, e\u011fride flattening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t