EUR\/USD \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi: Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc S\u00fcrerken Putlar \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,42\u2019ye toparlanmas\u0131 ve EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1377\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Temmuz ay\u0131nda Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesiyle desteklenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015f aktivitesi ile %12,5\u2019e varan yeni ABD tarifelerinin birle\u015fimi, Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak ABD-Avro B\u00f6lgesi PMI b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, takip eden ay EUR\/USD paritesinde ortalama %1,5\u2019lik bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6y Korumas\u0131 ve F\u0131rsatlar: WTI Bo\u011fa Call Spread\u2019leri ve Avro B\u00f6lgesi Faiz Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in WTI ham petrol \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejisine girilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ta\u015f\u0131yan kritik deniz yollar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n etkisiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 y\u00fckseldi. Artan enerji maliyetleri y\u00fcksek enflasyonu muhtemelen canl\u0131 tutarak, piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini %80 seviyesinde peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla EUR k\u0131sa u\u00e7 faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fu tercih ediyoruz. ECB yak\u0131n zamanda mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu ancak piyasalarca hen\u00fcz tam fiyatlanmam\u0131\u015f olan Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131. Avro B\u00f6lgesi Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 51,9 ile beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli Euro faizleri ABD faiz t\u00fcrevlerine k\u0131yasla daha cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n geni\u015flemesi ve daha \u015fahin bir Fed beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; ABD dolar\u0131 son zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1401 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n dip seviyesine yak\u0131n 1,1377 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar\u0131 destekleyen unsur, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD aktivite verileri oldu: S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc Bile\u015fik PMI Temmuz\u2019da 51,9\u2019dan 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; Hizmet PMI da 51,2\u2019den 53,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u0130malat PMI ise 53,9\u2019dan 53,8\u2019e hafif geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,25 dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 101,42 civar\u0131nda seyretti. <\/p>\n
Enerji ve ticaret geli\u015fmeleri, enflasyon odakl\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. WTI haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 art\u0131da ge\u00e7irirken; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb \u00fczerinden deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmesi etkili oldu. Ayr\u0131ca ABD, 60 ticaret orta\u011f\u0131ndan ithalata %10 ve %12,5 oranlar\u0131nda yeni tarifeler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80 g\u00f6sterirken; Fed\u2019in 28\u201329 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00f6nc\u00fc HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI 50,0\u2019dan 51,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 50,2 tahmininin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Hizmetler 49,4\u2019ten 51,6\u2019ya, \u0130malat ise 51,4\u2019ten 52,0\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. ECB mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yineleyerek Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131r\u0131m se\u00e7ene\u011fini g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar endeksi 101,42\u2019ye toparlan\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,1377\u2019ye geriledi: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI\u2019\u0131 ve yeni tarifeler bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put, WTI bo\u011fa call spread ve ECB k\u0131sa u\u00e7 long \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl Fed art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 %80.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t