USD\/CAD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,4095 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken %0,06 y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2019den gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin ard\u0131ndan hafif \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck sa\u011flarken; Kanada Dolar\u0131 ise zay\u0131f yurti\u00e7i g\u00f6stergeler ve gerileyen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI temmuzda hazirandaki 51,9\u2019dan 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; Hizmetler PMI da 53,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, \u0130malat PMI 53,9\u2019dan 53,8\u2019e hafif geriledi. S&P Global Market Intelligence, anketin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle uyumlu oldu\u011funa; buna ek olarak tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 ile fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi gelecek haftaki ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada \u00fcretici fiyat verileri zay\u0131flad\u0131: Sanayi \u00dcr\u00fcn Fiyat Endeksi (Industrial Product Price Index) haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (may\u0131s, revize %1,4 art\u0131\u015f); Hammadde Fiyat Endeksi (Raw Material Price Index) ise beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak %6,9 geriledi. Veriler, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimseyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Scotiabank, ABD tahvil getirilerinin gerilemesi ve k\u0131sa vadeli spreadlerin daralmas\u0131yla CAD\u2019in genel olarak yatay seyretti\u011fini belirtirken, gelecek ay %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dahil ticaret gerilimlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Banka teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019nun 1,4081 seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu; 1,4125\u2019te diren\u00e7 ve 1,4060\u2019ta ilk destek oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesi 1,4095 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur, \u015fu anda 1,4081\u2019deki 40 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131nda y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve 1,4060 destek ile 1,4125 diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu dar teknik bant g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bir sonraki ana y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) stratejilerinin kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n temmuzda 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi, Amerikan ekonomisinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019lik sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u00fcregelen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Kanada ekonomisi zorlan\u0131yor; hammaddelerdeki %6,9\u2019luk sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %1,4\u2019l\u00fck gerileme bunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi; Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 73 dolar civar\u0131na gerilerken, bu tarihsel olarak petrole duyarl\u0131 Kanada paras\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde out-of-the-money put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Trump y\u00f6netiminden gelecek ay g\u00fcndeme gelebilecek %50 tarife tehdidi, USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,4125 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte belirgin bir politik risk unsuru ekliyor. Nitekim tarihsel veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli tarife duyurular\u0131n\u0131n USD\/CAD z\u0131mni volatilitesini birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, nihai y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun yakla\u015fan sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in long straddle opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi USD\/CAD 1,4095\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ABD PMI 53,6 ile dolar\u0131 desteklerken Kanada\u2019da \u00fcretici ve hammadde fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f CAD\u2019i zorluyor. 1,4125 diren\u00e7, 1,4060 destek; volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t