{"id":51632,"date":"2026-07-24T12:59:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T12:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-flas-pmilari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-yukselis-ve-fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiligi-dolar-ile-eur-usdde-havayi-belirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T12:59:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T12:59:35","slug":"abd-flas-pmilari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-yukselis-ve-fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiligi-dolar-ile-eur-usdde-havayi-belirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-flas-pmilari-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-yukselis-ve-fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiligi-dolar-ile-eur-usdde-havayi-belirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD fla\u015f PMI\u2019lar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ve Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolar ile EUR\/USD\u2019de havay\u0131 belirliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

S&P Global, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de ABD Temmuz ay\u0131 flash PMI verilerini yay\u0131mlayacak. Piyasalar Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131 Haziran\u2019daki 51,2\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 51,0; \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ise 53,9\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 54,5 seviyesinde bekliyor; her iki veri de 50 e\u015fik de\u011ferinin \u00fczerinde. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar ayr\u0131ca istihdam ve girdi enflasyonu g\u00f6stergelerini de i\u00e7eriyor; bu kalemler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) ve EUR\/USD paritesini etkileyebilir. Petrol kilit bir oynakl\u0131k unsuru h\u00e2line geldi: ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Temmuz ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 y\u00fckseldi ve CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Federal Rezerv (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %80\u2019e fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Anket, girdi maliyetlerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine ve \u015firketlerin bunu fiyatlar \u00fczerinden yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederse USD g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir ve EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir; man\u015fet PMI\u2019lardan herhangi birinin 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na kaymas\u0131 ise bunun tersine etki yapabilir. Rabobank zamanlama riskine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; anketin muhtemelen son iki haftada yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile bu haftaki petrol hareketini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yans\u0131tabilece\u011fini savunuyor. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda, RSI 40\u2019a yak\u0131n. Destek 1,1370-1,1350 band\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1270 ve 1,1160 izleniyor. Diren\u00e7 ise 1,1420; sonra 1,1470 ve 1,1570 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

ABD Ekonomik G\u00fcc\u00fc Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev Piyasa Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

En son ABD S&P Global PMI verilerinin i\u015f faaliyetlerinde dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00f6viz ve enerji piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130malat\u0131n 54,5\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131 ve hizmetlerin 51,0 ile geni\u015fleme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir savunma karakteri sergiliyor. Bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, sonbahara girilirken Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD\u2019nin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli 40 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, paritede k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1350 gibi kritik destekleri ayr\u0131\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum 1,1270 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zlanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, pe\u015fin prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc dikey spread stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n

Petrol Hareketlerine Kar\u015f\u0131 Korunma ve Faiz Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6rme<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan askeri gerilimin tetikledi\u011fi WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki Temmuz ay\u0131na ait %30\u2019luk sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi de hesaba katmak gerekiyor. PMI anketinin erken yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n bu petrol fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, piyasa yakla\u015fan girdi enflasyonunu ciddi bi\u00e7imde oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir. Ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda veya enerji ETF\u2019lerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paradan uzak (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, imalat maliyetlerinde gecikmeli bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmada ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir yol sunar.<\/p>\n

Halihaz\u0131rda CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir %80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f faiz art\u0131\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, enflasyon endi\u015feleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015f aktivitesiyle birlikte yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011finde k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerinin h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek getirilere pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Fed Funds vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 veya likiditesi y\u00fcksek Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler 13:45 GMT\u2019de ABD flash PMI\u2019da: hizmet 51,0, imalat 54,5 bekleniyor. Girdi enflasyonu USD\/EURUSD\u2019yi sarsabilir. WTI %30 artt\u0131, FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %80 art\u0131\u015f; EUR\/USD 1,1350 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}