USD\/JPY, piyasalar\u0131n yen\u2019i desteklemek amac\u0131yla Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden gelebilecek olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskini fiyatlamas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n parite, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6rt on y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ve 164,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. Japonya ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i desteklemeye devam etti: Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faizleri 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltse de, fonlama maliyetleri ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enerji arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik riskleri, yenin g\u00f6rece daha zay\u0131f performans\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ordusu, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve operasyonlar\u0131n art arda 13. geceye uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran ve m\u00fcttefikleri ise Kuveyt, Bahreyn ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de ABD ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 hedef ald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019la hizal\u0131 Husiler de K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerini vurdu; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte ham petrol 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 1969\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeye gerileyerek y\u0131l sonuna kadar daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi. Bununla birlikte, gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde i\u015flem hacmi zay\u0131flarken, parite \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe do\u011fru ilerledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/JPY paritesinin kritik 164,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale tehdidi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) harcamas\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riskinin son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY vadeli i\u015flemlerinde temkinli bir uzun (long) e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. BoJ politika faizini %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olsa da, ABD Federal Fonlama Oran\u0131\u2019na k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek getiri fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riskinin veya gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli belirsizlik ge\u00e7tikten sonra parite \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da y\u00fckselen jeopolitik gerilimler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrol\u00fcnde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemdeki diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerine h\u0131zla yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cproxy\u201d (dolayl\u0131) i\u015flem sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak Fed\u2019i \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumaya zorlayarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n tarihi dip seviyelere gerilemesi, Amerikan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (Treasury futures) al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro zemin, USD\/JPY\u2019deki olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri orta vadeli opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n