S&P Global\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n hazirandaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan temmuzda yeniden 50,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Endeks 51,8 ile, 49,4\u2019l\u00fck beklenti ve \u00f6nceki 48,8 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek hizmet faaliyetlerinde yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bile\u015fik PMI da, hem hizmetler hem de imalattaki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc okumalar\u0131n deste\u011fiyle geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti. Endeks 52,1 ile, 49,7\u2019lik piyasa beklentisi ve \u00f6nceki 49,3 seviyesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseldi. \u0130malat PMI ise 52,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 52,0 tahmininin ve hazirandaki 52,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geldi. Verinin ard\u0131ndan Sterlin\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, haberin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi s\u0131rada GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3326 seviyesinde %0,1 art\u0131dayd\u0131. S&P Global\u2019in ayl\u0131k PMI anketleri, bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla faaliyetteki de\u011fi\u015fimi 0\u2013100 \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde izler ve GSYH, istihdam ve enflasyon gibi g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc sinyaller olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 52,1\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131 ve imalat\u0131n 52,8 ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, ilk geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen Sterlin\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seyir izleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u00fcrpriz geni\u015fleme, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha sa\u011flam bir zeminde ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle GBP\/USD\u2019de uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden, Sterlin g\u00fcc\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik aktivitenin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) faiz indirimleri konusunda daha temkinli hale getirmesini ve bunun da k\u0131sa vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131 itmesini bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Bile\u015fik PMI 50,0 geni\u015fleme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131r; bu durum, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 resesyondan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz piyasa kaymalar\u0131na benzer. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme, k\u0131sa vadeli Sterlin faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvilleri (Gilt) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak yakla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, konaklama ve imalat gibi yurti\u00e7i sekt\u00f6rlerdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hisse t\u00fcrevlerinde f\u0131rsatlara i\u015faret ediyor. Yurti\u00e7i odakl\u0131 FTSE 250 endeksi \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa (bull) stratejilerine, \u00f6rne\u011fin bull call spread\u2019lere, odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. FTSE 250, yurti\u00e7i ekonomik geni\u015fleme d\u00f6nemlerinde genellikle ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 FTSE 100\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans sergiler. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, artan yurti\u00e7i tatiller ve ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ivmeden yararlan\u0131rken k\u00fcresel kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde maruz kalmama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n