Sterlin, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti; 1,3300 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken haftay\u0131 %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi, resmi rakamlar\u0131n haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %1 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini (piyasa beklentisi %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %4,2\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (beklenti %2,3) ortaya koymas\u0131na ra\u011fmen paritede anlaml\u0131 bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi yaratmad\u0131. Kur tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi korunuyor ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi gemilerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri Brent petrol\u00fc 100 dolara do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini \u00e7ok ay\u0131n zirvelerine itti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Trump y\u00f6netimi ge\u00e7ici %10\u2019luk k\u00fcresel tarifelerin sona ermesiyle 60 ticaret orta\u011f\u0131na %10 ila %12 aras\u0131nda yeni tarifeler getirdi; bu ad\u0131m risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ise dikkatler, Ba\u015fbakan Andrew Burnham\u2019\u0131n harcama planlar\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n mali istikrara etkileri \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131; ayr\u0131ca sonbahar \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faizlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyredece\u011fi beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 1,3300 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken ve Brent petrol 100 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterlin\u2019de ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmesi ve yeni ABD tarifeleri, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 son derece cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haneli seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yan enerji \u015foklar\u0131, \u201cgreenback\u201de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek izleyen haftalarda GBP\/USD\u2019yi ortalama %3 ila %5 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan put almak yerine GBP\/USD \u201cbear put spread\u201d stratejisini \u00f6neriyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin genellikle paritenin 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilitesini tarihsel %8 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, tek ba\u015f\u0131na opsiyon almak \u015fu a\u015famada pahal\u0131. 1,3000 destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hedefleyen bear put spread, y\u00fcksek prim maliyetini dengelememize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fbakan Burnham\u2019\u0131n harcama planlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri artarken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini de bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) GBP\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) satarak d\u00fczenli prim geliri elde edebilir. 2022 b\u00fct\u00e7e krizi gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k mali \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131na ait tarihsel veriler, i\u00e7 politika belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fckseldi\u011finde Sterlin rallilerinin nadiren kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ABD Hazine tahvili ihalelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi tavsiye ediyoruz; ABD getirilerinde olas\u0131 her yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f, Sterlin\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi son d\u00f6nemdeki \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvelerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flarsa, GBP\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artacakt\u0131r. A\u011fustos\u2019a girerken Sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201ck\u0131sa delta\u201d e\u011filimini korumak, y\u00fcksek inan\u00e7 d\u00fczeyine sahip ana senaryomuz olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n