{"id":51615,"date":"2026-07-24T08:29:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T08:29:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ecbnin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-euro-dolar-karsisinda-geriledi-piyasalar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-fiyatliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T08:29:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T08:29:17","slug":"ecbnin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-euro-dolar-karsisinda-geriledi-piyasalar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-fiyatliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecbnin-faizleri-sabit-tutmasiyla-euro-dolar-karsisinda-geriledi-piyasalar-eylulde-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-fiyatliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131yla euro dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; piyasalar eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1377\u2019ye geriledi; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizlerini oybirli\u011fiyle sabit tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen euro, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite, \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f olan 1,1412\u2019ye k\u0131yasla seans\u0131 1,1377\u2019de tamamlayarak kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u201chemen harekete ge\u00e7ilip ge\u00e7ilmemesi\u201d sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fini kabul etmesine ra\u011fmen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam etti.<\/p>\n

Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda gelecek verileri de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini ve toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya karar alma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bloomberg, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir e\u011filime i\u015faret eden nitelikte de\u011ferlendirdi. Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131, yeni \u00e7eyreklik uzman tahminleri, \u00f6nceki iki aya ait enflasyon verileri ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri dahil ek g\u00f6stergelerle desteklenen olas\u0131 bir hamle penceresi olarak geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar da arka plan unsuru olarak an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ECB Politika Belirsizli\u011fi Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

ECB\u2019nin son faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca EUR\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro\u2019nun, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sinyallere ra\u011fmen 1,1377\u2019ye gerilemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131 ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilme, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde uzun (long) pozisyon olu\u015fturmak isteyenler i\u00e7in stratejik bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Kritik Euro B\u00f6lgesi Verileri \u00d6ncesinde Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel olarak, EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility), kritik eyl\u00fcl ECB toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %10 ila %15 y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesi halinde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u201cbull risk reversal\u201d stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan put\u2019lar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda call al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n finanse edilmesi. Bu kurgu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 seviyesinde yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 son Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileriyle de uyumlu olup, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki eylem bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fcl tercihini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek olan yakla\u015fan a\u011fustos enflasyon verileri ile sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi (PMI) anketlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Mevcut seviyeleri sabitlemek i\u00e7in standart d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures) de kullan\u0131labilir; zira piyasa \u015fu anda eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ekonomik verilerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde, euronun h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanarak 1,1500 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euro\u2019da ters k\u00f6\u015fe: ECB faizi sabit tuttu ama EUR\/USD %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1377\u2019ye indi. Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesi veri odakl\u0131 volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor; putlarla korunma, bull risk reversal ve f\u0131rsat 1,1500 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}