West Texas Intermediate (WTI), \u00fc\u00e7 seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rarak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,20 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; buna kar\u015f\u0131n haftal\u0131k bazda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde prim yapmaya devam etti. Fiyat hareketi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskinin artmas\u0131yla petrol arz\u0131nda kesinti endi\u015felerinin y\u00fckselmesini izledi.<\/p>\n
ABD, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 13\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcne uzat\u0131rken, iki taraf da yak\u0131n vadede g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimalini d\u0131\u015flad\u0131. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar olmas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran ve Husilere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck askeri ceza\u201d tehdidi ile \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 \u201cdevasa bir sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d ifadeleri bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Husi militanlar, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle aksamas\u0131 nedeniyle alternatif ihracat koridoru olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerini vurdu. Asyal\u0131 ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden ve Afrika \u00e7evresinden y\u00f6nlendirmeleri tart\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flarken, Hazar Boru Hatt\u0131 Konsorsiyumu (CPC) tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Karadeniz terminalindeki y\u00fcklemeleri durdurdu; bu da Kazakistan\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fc, haftal\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir %10\u2019luk s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 90,20 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131yla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve Hazar Boru Hatt\u0131\u2019ndaki ani duru\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 100 dolar seviyesini rahatl\u0131kla test edebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu patlay\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalamak i\u00e7in temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu kesintinin ciddiyetini anlamak i\u00e7in, risk alt\u0131ndaki bu ticaret rotalar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en petrol hacmine bakmak gerekir. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz, g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ev sahipli\u011fi yapar; bu, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk gelir. Bu sevkiyatlar\u0131n Afrika \u00e7evresinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi, transit s\u00fcrelerine 14 g\u00fcne kadar ek y\u00fck bindirir; bu da tarihsel olarak tanker navlunlar\u0131nda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 ve spot fiyatlarda anl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fleri tetikler.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca CPC\u2019nin kapanmas\u0131, Kazak ham petrol\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,2 milyon varili piyasadan \u00e7ekiyor; bu, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %1\u2019inden fazlas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. 2022\u2019de benzer arz \u015foklar\u0131nda, uzun s\u00fcreli arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 korkusuyla WTI fiyatlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131na \u015fu anda yans\u0131yan y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k primlerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread (bull call spread) stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ham petrol takvim spreadlerine (calendar spreads) odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131n vade kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p daha ileri vadeleri satmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu backwardation stratejisi, fiziki arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n keskinle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, hemen teslimat\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir prim gerektirmesiyle genellikle iyi performans g\u00f6sterir. Diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u015fu a\u015famada d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadeli teslimat priminin belirgin \u015fekilde geni\u015fleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n