Sterlin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131nc\u0131 seansa ta\u015f\u0131rken, GBP\/USD %0,45 gerileyerek 1,3300 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; parite g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde 1,3400\u2019a yakla\u015fan ancak alt\u0131nda kalan zirvenin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirve 04:30 GMT civar\u0131nda, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 bir kataliz\u00f6r olmadan g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve yurt i\u00e7i takvimin bo\u015f oldu\u011fu s\u00fcre\u00e7te parite kademeli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarkt\u0131. Sat\u0131\u015flar ABD sabah\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131 ve 15:10 GMT civar\u0131nda kur 1,3300\u2019un hemen alt\u0131na indi; yakla\u015f\u0131k yaln\u0131zca 25 piplik bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi, takip eden alt\u0131 saatte 1,3300 seviyesinden belirgin bir uzakla\u015fma sa\u011flayamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc fiyatlamaya y\u00f6n verdi; y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha sa\u011flam ABD verileri tabloyu destekledi. \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidine ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Brent\u2019i 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rken, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckselterek 101,50\u2019ye do\u011fru itti. Bu s\u0131rada haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 212 bin beklenti ve 209 bin \u00f6nceki seviyeye kar\u015f\u0131 187 bine gerileyerek 1969\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 12:30 GMT verisinin ard\u0131ndan iki bu\u00e7uk saat i\u00e7inde GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 pip d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar Fed\u2019in gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi sabit b\u0131rakma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %66,9; art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %33,1 fiyatl\u0131yor. En az bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na kadar %80,6, ekim sonuna kadar %86,6 ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar %92,2 seviyesinde; aral\u0131\u011fa kadar iki art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60,0 ile fiyatlan\u0131yor ve hedef bant 4,00% – 4,25% g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, faiz indirimi fiyatlanm\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verileri aras\u0131nda 23:01 GMT\u2019de GfK (havaya ili\u015fkin beklenti -17; \u00f6nceki -23; piyasa -21), 06:00 GMT\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar (ayl\u0131k -%0,3; \u00f6nceki %1,2; akaryak\u0131t hari\u00e7 -%0,4; \u00f6nceki %1,2) ve 08:30 GMT\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar (bile\u015fik 49,3; hizmetler 48,8; imalat 52,5; hizmetler enflasyonu %3,6) yer al\u0131yor; ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar\u0131 13:45 GMT\u2019de (imalat 54,5; hizmetler 51) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Fed karar\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de, 18:30\u2019da bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131yla gelecek; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ise per\u015fembe 11:00 GMT\u2019de karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak ve 11:30\u2019da ba\u015fkan konu\u015facak. Her iki kurumun da, haziranda 7-2 b\u00f6l\u00fcnme (iki \u00fcye %4,00\u2019\u0131 tercih etmi\u015fti) sonras\u0131 faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalar 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda yak\u0131nsarken, yukar\u0131da 1,3450 ve 1,3550 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; destekler 1,3300, ard\u0131ndan 1,3250 ve 1,3150. Stochastic RSI 90 \u00fczerinden 70\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015fiyor ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn alt\u0131na kesi\u015fmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, GBP\/USD\u2019nin alt\u0131 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3300 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle birlikte sterlindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7i ba\u015fl\u0131klardan ziyade tamamen g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanman\u0131n en etkin yolu, GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu trendin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131. Tarihsel olarak 1973 ve 2022 krizleri gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015foklar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131 yarat\u0131rken Avrupa para birimlerini ciddi bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lad\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k benzer bir \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle teyit edilen ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Vadeli piyasalarda eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %80,6\u2019ya fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar olas\u0131l\u0131k %92\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu geni\u015fleyen getiri beklentisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun-dolar t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6ncelik vermesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin de mart ay\u0131na kadar iki olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fiyatlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu simetrik \u015fahinlik sterlin lehine potansiyel yukar\u0131 alan\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde n\u00f6trl\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaki iki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 volatilite riskini art\u0131rsa da, g\u00fcvenli liman\/sava\u015f primi kanal\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok faydalanan taraf dolar olmaya devam ediyor. Sterlinde olas\u0131 rahatlama y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle, 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n birle\u015ferek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011fu 1,3400 diren\u00e7 band\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejileriyle 1,3250 ve 1,3150 desteklerine do\u011fru olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketleri hedefleyebilir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeniden 1,3400 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu k\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in kat\u0131 bir ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme (invalidation) sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n