{"id":51596,"date":"2026-07-24T04:29:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T04:29:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ecbnin-eylul-ayinda-faiz-artirimi-yapabilecegi-beklentisi-yene-mudahale-endiselerini-dengelerken-eur-jpy-haftayi-guclu-yukselisle-tamamlamaya-hazirlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T04:29:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T04:29:16","slug":"ecbnin-eylul-ayinda-faiz-artirimi-yapabilecegi-beklentisi-yene-mudahale-endiselerini-dengelerken-eur-jpy-haftayi-guclu-yukselisle-tamamlamaya-hazirlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecbnin-eylul-ayinda-faiz-artirimi-yapabilecegi-beklentisi-yene-mudahale-endiselerini-dengelerken-eur-jpy-haftayi-guclu-yukselisle-tamamlamaya-hazirlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi, yen\u2019e m\u00fcdahale endi\u015felerini dengelerken EUR\/JPY haftay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle tamamlamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseldi ve Bloomberg kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir haftal\u0131k kazanca do\u011fru ilerledi. Christine Lagarde, enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimli oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken; faiz patikas\u0131na \u00f6nceden taahh\u00fctte bulunmadan, enflasyonu orta vadede %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrecek \u015fekilde politikan\u0131n belirlenece\u011fini yineledi. Yen\u2019in euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fine dair huzursuzlukla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn oda\u011f\u0131 Japonya veri takvimi: taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 Ulusal T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4\u2019ten %1,6\u2019ya hafif y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; Jibun Bank \u00f6nc\u00fc imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n ise 54,8\u2019den 54,5\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde HCOB \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar izlenecek: AB imalat g\u00f6stergesinin 51,4\u2019ten 51,3\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, hizmetler endeksinin ise 49,4\u2019ten 49,8\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131 fakat daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik olarak yukar\u0131da 187,56 ve ard\u0131ndan 187,95 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bunun \u00fczerinde 188,00 ve 190,00 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destek taraf\u0131nda 186,05; ard\u0131ndan 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar 185,16\/02 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 183,44 izleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejisi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, riski s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6netmek ko\u015fuluyla EUR\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite, ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentileriyle desteklenen ivmeyle y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvesi 187,95\u2019e do\u011fru ilerliyor. Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamaya imk\u00e2n veren al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 son derece temkinli olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Japonya, 2024 ortas\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131; bu da yen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne kadar agresif olabileceklerini g\u00f6steriyor. Ani m\u00fcdahaleler yenin bir anda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden, EUR\/JPY uzun pozisyonlar\u0131nda bariyerli (knock-out) opsiyonlar veya s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Kritik Veriler ve Teknik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemlerimizde y\u00f6n tayini i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan makro verileri yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. Taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 Japonya Ulusal T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %1,4\u2019ten %1,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; veri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yaparsa yeni destekleyebilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131 takip ediliyor; 51,3 beklentisinin \u00fczerindeki bir okuma, euronun rallisine ek yak\u0131t sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 187,56 \u00fczerindeki bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 188,00\u2019deki psikolojik dirence ve potansiyel olarak 190,00 seviyesine do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Di\u011fer taraftan parite 186,05\u2019teki ilk deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkarsa, 185,16 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu stratejilerine d\u00f6nmeye haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00c7ok bacakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejileriyle hedge ederek, beklenen volatiliteden faydalanabilir ve ani bir merkez bankas\u0131 hamlesinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7apraz ate\u015fte yakalanma riskini azaltabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7 seanst\u0131r y\u00fckseli\u015fte: ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali pariteyi 187,95 zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131rken, BoJ m\u00fcdahale riski kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. PMI\/T\u00dcFE ve 187,56 direnci kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}