NZD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5770\u2019e do\u011fru kademeli geriledi. ABD\u2019den gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam piyasas\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep artarken, jeopolitik belirsizlikteki yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 18 Temmuz ile biten haftada 187 bine geriledi; 212 binlik beklentinin ve yukar\u0131 revize edilen \u00f6nceki 209 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veriler, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ederek, Yeni Zelanda\u2019da y\u00fcksek enflasyonun Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (RBNZ) daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgede tutabilece\u011fi beklentilerini destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde parite 0,5774 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 20 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) 0,5820\u2019deki seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi korudu. Fiyat, 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,5770\u2019deki seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde seyrederken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) yakla\u015f\u0131k 27 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7ler 0,5780 ve 0,5789, ard\u0131ndan 0,5805 ve 0,5820 ortalamas\u0131 olarak belirtildi; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, oda\u011f\u0131 0,5907, 0,5930 ve 0,5965 seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Destek seviyeleri 0,5774, 0,5770 ve 0,5767 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bask\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,5770 civar\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fi test etmesiyle artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 187 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan son derece s\u0131k\u0131 ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan besleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, ABD ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 200 bin e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler, Fed\u2019in k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre korumas\u0131na imk\u00e2n veren dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomiye i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu desteklerken, artan k\u00fcresel gerilimler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131na y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Benzer g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa \u015foklar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015fi Kiwi\u2019yi yine 0,5770 civar\u0131ndaki ayn\u0131 \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 dip seviyelere itmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli Kiwi tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin agresif dolar al\u0131mlar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta RSI\u2019\u0131n 27 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m sinyali vermesi, ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi devam etmeden \u00f6nce ge\u00e7ici bir duraksama veya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir teknik tepki ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu kurguya g\u00f6re, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na paritenin 0,5767\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in 0,5700 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi bozulmadan prim toplamak amac\u0131yla 0,5820 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n