{"id":51592,"date":"2026-07-24T03:29:30","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T03:29:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolar-rekor-dusuk-issizlik-basvurularinin-etkisiyle-deger-kazanirken-ortadogu-geriliminin-petrolu-yukseltmesi-euro-ve-sterlini-baskiladi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T03:29:30","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T03:29:30","slug":"dolar-rekor-dusuk-issizlik-basvurularinin-etkisiyle-deger-kazanirken-ortadogu-geriliminin-petrolu-yukseltmesi-euro-ve-sterlini-baskiladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-rekor-dusuk-issizlik-basvurularinin-etkisiyle-deger-kazanirken-ortadogu-geriliminin-petrolu-yukseltmesi-euro-ve-sterlini-baskiladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken; Ortado\u011fu geriliminin petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltmesi euro ve sterlini bask\u0131lad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar\u0131, 18 Temmuz\u2019da sona eren haftada ABD \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 187 bine gerileyerek 212 bin beklentisinin ve 209 bine revize edilen \u00f6nceki okuman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan (1969\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi tankerlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 arz\/ta\u015f\u0131ma kesintilerine yeniden odaklan\u0131ld\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckselerek 101,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. EUR\/USD, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 temel faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesine ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,1380 civar\u0131na geriledi. GBP\/USD ise Haziran ay\u0131 i\u00e7in Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019taki +%1,2 sonras\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda \u2212%0,3 (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 \u2212%0,4) daralaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 kay\u0131pla 1,3320\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n\n

USD\/JPY, getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 artarak 163,85\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. AUD\/USD, Avustralya \u0130stihdam\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 15 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 76,3 bin artmas\u0131na ve \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %4,4\u2019te kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,6970\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti; \u00f6nceki Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019lar 50,4 seviyesindeydi. WTI, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92,00 dolar civar\u0131na %6\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselirken, Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 gerileyerek 4.050 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya GfK T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni (\u221228,5 beklenti, \u00f6nceki \u221229,2) ve temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc HCOB PMI verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u0130malat\u2019\u0131n 51,3 ve Hizmetler\u2019in 49,8 gelmesi bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de temmuz \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar\u0131 (\u0130malat 54,5; \u00f6nceki 53,9 \/ Hizmetler 51,0; \u00f6nceki 51,2) ile birlikte haziran Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yay\u0131mlanacak; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k da \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak.<\/p>\n\n

Dolar, Yen, Petrol ve Alt\u0131n: Stratejik Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin FED\u2019i \u015fahin tarafta tuttu\u011fu ortamda FX vadeli i\u015flemleri ve al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) \u00fczerinden dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131na odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 bin ile tarihi dip seviyelere inmesi, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin daha da y\u00fckselmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar endeksinin (DXY) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 101,40 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki ivmesini rahatl\u0131kla koruyabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de 163,85 civar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlarda son derece temkinli olunmal\u0131; Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ani m\u00fcdahale riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024\u2019te kur 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in tek bir ayda rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar\u0131 durdur (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmal\u0131 veya paritede m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) ile koruma sa\u011flanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki jeopolitik tehditlerin k\u00fcresel enerji koridorlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma riski nedeniyle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcnde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bab el-Mendeb ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz bo\u011fazlar\u0131 birlikte g\u00fcnl\u00fck milyonlarca varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla olas\u0131 sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 enflasyonist etkiyi belirgin art\u0131r\u0131r. WTI\u2019\u0131n 92,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla opsiyon ima edilen volatilitesinin (IV) y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131\u00e7ramalara pozisyon alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Y\u00fcksek jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, metalin 4.050 dolar zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyonu \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d tutarak b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131na zorlayabilir. Tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen reel getiriler, faiz getirmeyen g\u00fcvenli limanlar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131r; bu da yak\u0131n vadede alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Euro ve Sterlin Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

ABD ile geni\u015fleyen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirip \u201cbear spread\u201d stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle zorlan\u0131rken, yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %0,3 daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu tablo, her iki Avrupa para birimini de dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: DXY 101,40+, USD\/JPY 40 y\u0131l zirvesi. Petrol %6 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, alt\u0131n geriledi. ECB sabit; EUR\/GBP zay\u0131f. Strateji: USD long, WTI call, alt\u0131n put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}