Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, \u015eanghay Alt\u0131n Borsas\u0131\u2019na (Shanghai Gold Exchange) ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131ymetli maden \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde bireysel i\u015flemleri 24 Temmuz\u2019dan itibaren durduracak. Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank ve China Guangfa Bank da perakende \u201ck\u00e2\u011f\u0131t alt\u0131n\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine ili\u015fkin benzer duyurular yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Bu \u00fcr\u00fcnler, devredilebilen ya da fiziki teslimatla kapat\u0131labilen vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131sa da pozisyonlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc hi\u00e7bir zaman k\u00fcl\u00e7enin el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131yor. K\u00e2\u011f\u0131t talepleri ile piyasadaki mevcut metal aras\u0131ndaki ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan fark, fiyatlaman\u0131n fiziki ak\u0131\u015flardan ziyade t\u00fcrev a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 platformlarda belirlenip belirlenmedi\u011fine dair tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 alevlendirdi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (World Gold Council) ilk yar\u0131 (H1) analizinde aktar\u0131lan i\u015flem verilerine g\u00f6re, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda alt\u0131n Asya seans\u0131nda %12,9 y\u00fckselirken Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda %15 geriledi; Avrupa seans\u0131 ise iki b\u00f6lge aras\u0131nda kalarak %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. \u015eanghay Alt\u0131n Borsas\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck fiziki spot i\u015flem merkezi ve Hong Kong yeni bir takas ve mutabakat sistemini devreye al\u0131yor olsa da, Londra, New York ve \u0130svi\u00e7re fiyatlamada merkez\u00ee rol\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; spot referans fiyat\u0131 LBMA\u2019nin sabah (a.m.) ve ak\u015fam (p.m.) fixing\u2019leriyle \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in bankalar\u0131 bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi, artan oynakl\u0131k ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 perakende maruziyete kar\u015f\u0131 risk kontrol\u00fc gerek\u00e7esiyle \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7in bankalar\u0131 perakende k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t alt\u0131n i\u015flemlerini resmen durdururken, k\u00fcresel likiditede belirgin bir kaymaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Bat\u0131\u2019daki k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ile Do\u011fu\u2019daki fiziki spot fiyatlar aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131lan makas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t fiyatlama h\u00e2kimiyetinin \u015fimdiye kadarki en do\u011frudan meydan okumas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, \u015eanghay Alt\u0131n Borsas\u0131 priminin Londra spot fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131k s\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; y\u00fcksek i\u00e7 talep d\u00f6nemlerinde zaman zaman ons ba\u015f\u0131na 40 ila 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak amac\u0131yla son y\u0131llarda rezervlerine y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde ekleme yaparak agresif alt\u0131n al\u0131m trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019de perakende kald\u0131ra\u00e7tan uzakla\u015fman\u0131n Asya\u2019daki k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t i\u015flem hacimlerini kurutaca\u011f\u0131na ve spek\u00fclatif k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler yerine fiziki k\u0131tl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir fiyatlama modelini zorlayaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin COMEX gibi k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 platformlarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, fiziki taraftaki fiyat ke\u015ffinin k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasalarda h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cshort squeeze\u201dleri tetikleyebilece\u011fi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca, fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn Londra ve New York\u2019tan giderek \u015eanghay\u2019a do\u011fru kaymas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek arbitraj f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 da izlemeli.<\/p>\n
Asya i\u015flem saatlerinde g\u00fcn i\u00e7i oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 da beklenmeli; nitekim alt\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l boyunca Bat\u0131 seanslar\u0131na k\u0131yasla Asya seans\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergiledi. Tarihsel olarak 100\u2019e 1\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu tahmin edilen geleneksel k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t\/fiziki oran\u0131 daralmaya ba\u015flarken, teminat (marjin) gerekliliklerini defansif bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmek kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yaln\u0131zca bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi de\u011fil; k\u0131ymetli metallerin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte nas\u0131l de\u011fer bi\u00e7ildi\u011fine ili\u015fkin temel bir yeniden yap\u0131lanma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n