D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 ton alt\u0131n satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n haziran ay\u0131nda rezervleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 ton azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ekonomistler, Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya b\u00fct\u00e7esi yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 trilyon rubleye (89 milyar dolar) geni\u015flerken bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,6 milyar dolar gelir sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Rezervlerdeki bu erime, onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Temmuz 2020 ile Nisan 2021 aras\u0131nda 7,6 ton sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1 Temmuz 2026 itibar\u0131yla Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n rezervleri 2.283 ton, yani 73,4 milyon ons seviyesindeydi; bu, \u015eubat 2020\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey.<\/p>\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasaya sat\u0131\u015f yaparken, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da Ulusal Varl\u0131k Fonu (NWF) \u00fczerinden alt\u0131n satt\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi mobilize edebilmesi, y\u0131llara yay\u0131lan rezerv birikimini yans\u0131t\u0131yor: 2014\u2019ten itibaren, alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 1.100-1.500 dolar band\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi alt\u0131 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 milyon ons (1.244 ton) ekledi. Sava\u015f\u0131n patlak vermesiyle Rusya rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 dolar, euro ve sterlin varl\u0131klar\u0131nda tutulurken, kalan k\u0131sm\u0131 yuan ve alt\u0131ndayd\u0131; NWF ise %60 yuan ve %40 alt\u0131na kayd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n rezervlerini tasfiye ederek 1 Temmuz 2026 itibar\u0131yla varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 2.283 tona indirmesiyle tarihi bir de\u011fi\u015fime tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyoruz. Bu y\u0131l \u015fimdiye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 tona ula\u015fan bu agresif sat\u0131\u015f, piyasada benzersiz bir arz bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu istikrarl\u0131 tasfiye, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem modellerinde fiyatlanmas\u0131 gereken kritik bir k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011fi\u015fken niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel talep son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; d\u00fcnya genelindeki merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde net 290 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, k\u00fcresel piyasa Rusya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc arz\u0131 absorbe edecek kadar dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re bu temel kurumsal i\u015ftah, belirgin bir ay\u0131 trendini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak; sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yak\u0131n vadede, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n her ay yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 ton alt\u0131n satmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle yerel fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenmeli. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu k\u0131sa, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak de\u011ferlendirmeye odaklanmal\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n mali raporlama d\u00f6nemleri \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 stratejik bi\u00e7imde almak da ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u00e2r f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan petrol ve gaz gelirlerindeki dalgalanmalarla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 likit paraya \u00e7evirmeye devam edecek. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yeni bir gerileme, daha a\u011f\u0131r ve ani alt\u0131n tasfiyelerine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131yla, \u00f6zellikle ruble ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131yla etkile\u015fimine de bakmak gerekiyor. Yuan cinsi varl\u0131klara kar\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon almak, jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeden arbitraj yoluyla faydalanmak i\u00e7in ak\u0131lc\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor. Bu spesifik spread\u2019lere odaklanarak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik izolasyonunun \u00fcretti\u011fi oynakl\u0131k daha kontroll\u00fc bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n