AUD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen Avustralya istihdam verisinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fe ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar\u0131 talebinin a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131yla geriledi. Parite 0,6966 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,45 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, y\u00fckselen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi ve Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %83 olarak ima ederken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 101,45 ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesindeydi.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite 0,6948 ve 0,6896 seviyelerindeki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, 0,7028\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 47 civar\u0131nda, 50\u2019deki n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011fin hemen alt\u0131nda bulunurken; MACD marjinal pozitif seyretti ve zay\u0131flayan ye\u015fil histogram e\u015flik etti. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,7028, ard\u0131ndan 0,7100 ve 0,7250 olarak belirtilirken; destek 0,6948 ve 0,6896\u2019da izleniyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma 0,6800\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik risklerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cgreenback\u201di desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n AUD\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 101,45 ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131nda, uzun pozisyonlu varl\u0131klar\u0131 korumaya odaklanarak AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nabilir. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemler i\u00e7in ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefimiz, 0,6948\u2019deki ilk destek seviyesi olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel veriler, enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019dan fazla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurti\u00e7i istihdam verilerine ra\u011fmen Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak zay\u0131f performans sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bug\u00fcn petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri artarken, faiz piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %83 gibi y\u00fcksek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 0,7028\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satman\u0131n, y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ve gelir yaratmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir strateji sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta RSI\u2019\u0131n 47 ile n\u00f6tr \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Paritenin 0,6896\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, 0,6800 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken i\u015flem maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 (bear) put spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n