USD\/CHF Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 destek buldu. Parite 0,8170 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise 101,45 civar\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde seyretti.<\/p>\n
Petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik risk, Yemen\u2019deki Ensar Allah grubunun K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na do\u011fru geni\u015fledi. Enflasyon endi\u015feleri artarken, CME FedWatch Tool piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %83 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise %35\u2019e yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 212 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 187 bine geriledi; \u00f6nceki hafta verisi 208 binden 209 bine revize edildi. G\u00f6zler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Temmuz ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verilerine \u00e7evrildi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, geni\u015fleyen ABD\u2013\u0130svi\u00e7re faiz farklar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar talebinin bask\u0131n olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ola\u011fan \u201cdefansif\u201d profilinden fayda sa\u011flayamad\u0131; \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 Frank de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yineliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8170 ile bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma devam senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 30\u201345 g\u00fcn vadeli, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, bu k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli\u2013s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk profiliyle de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in uygun bir yol sunuyor. DXY\u2019nin 101,45 ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn Dolar lehine oldu\u011funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergeleri K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki son tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu ay %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,8 milyon varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi Bab el-Mandeb bo\u011faz\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar tarihsel olarak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonist s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebildi. Bu arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, kur pozisyonlar\u0131na ek olarak ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin %83\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte, paritedeki ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 konumunda. \u00d6te yandan SNB\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 Frank g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 aktif duru\u015fu, geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini zay\u0131flatmaya devam ediyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli CHF vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f veya \u0130svi\u00e7re para birimi \u00fczerinde \u201cbear put spread\u201d stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak S&P Global PMI verileri ve gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 etraf\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle teyit edilen ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 pozitif bir makro s\u00fcrpriz USD al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Mevcut k\u0131sa-USD pozisyonlar\u0131nda zarar kes seviyelerinin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve hafta sonu \u00f6ncesi uzun Dolar y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lar\u0131na kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n