Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %1,1 kay\u0131pla 51.600 civar\u0131na geriledi; iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toparlanmay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirirken \u00f6nceki haftan\u0131n taban\u0131 olan 51.800 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, art arda gelen jeopolitik gerilimlerle paralel seyretti: Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Ensar Allah, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi tankeri vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Donald Trump ise, Bo\u011faz\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011frayan her gemi i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir k\u00f6pr\u00fcy\u00fc veya elektrik santralini yok edece\u011fini, Tahran\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ya da Tahran i\u00e7indeki hedeflerin de buna dahil olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Axios\u2019a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda ayr\u0131ca, bug\u00fcne kadarkinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cdevasa\u201d bir \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini, haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve karar\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Petrol ilk tepkiyi verdi: Brent %7 art\u0131\u015fla 101,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine, WTI ise %6 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 92,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en ayki bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc; RBC Capital Markets 128,00 dolar\u0131 (2022) ve 146,00 dolar\u0131 (2008) referans g\u00f6sterdi. S&P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 gerilerken Nasdaq %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Alphabet, 2026 sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex) beklentisini 205 milyar dolara kadar y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan %6 de\u011fer kaybetti; Tesla ise ikinci \u00e7eyrek beklenti ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131yla %13 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. AAII bo\u011falar\u0131 %44,9\u2019dan %29,6\u2019ya inerken ay\u0131lar %42,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (normal %31). 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,35\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir hafta \u00f6nceki %52\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %83\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 18 Temmuz haftas\u0131nda 187 bine gerileyerek 212 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7ar\u015famba Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131k \u201cyedide bir\u201dden \u201c\u00fc\u00e7te bir\u201din \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, aral\u0131k vadeli patika bir art\u0131r\u0131m yerine iki art\u0131r\u0131ma daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de S&P Global\u2019in temmuz \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verisi ve 14:00 GMT\u2019de (May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %7,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan) haziran yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Teknik tarafta 52.000 ve 52.500 diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken rekor seviye 53.300\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde; destek 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 51.500\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 51.200 ve 51.000 seviyelerinde. 52.000 alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif kal\u0131rken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik\u2019in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi oynak\/yatay bir seyre i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dow\u2019un kritik 51.800 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla stratejilerimizi h\u0131zla g\u00fcncellememiz gerekiyor; bu k\u0131r\u0131lma, piyasan\u0131n nihayet Orta Do\u011fu jeopolitik riskini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu net a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma sonras\u0131, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 haziran dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 51.200 civar\u0131na denk gelen put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz. Bu endeks, teknoloji devlerindeki bilan\u00e7o g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcnden g\u00f6rece ar\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, geni\u015fleyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmada en \u201ctemiz\u201d ara\u00e7lardan birini sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrolde 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki sert s\u0131\u00e7rama ile, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de olas\u0131 ek arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak amac\u0131yla petrol g\u00f6stergeleri \u00fczerinde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2008 \u015fokunda Brent\u2019in 147,50 dolar ile rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131 ve 2022\u2019de 130 dolara yak\u0131n zirve g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, bir nakliye krizinde enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ko\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma halinde, 120\u2013128 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen call opsiyonlar\u0131 risk primleri h\u0131zla \u015fi\u015ferken \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, son derece \u015fahin bir Fed senaryosuna faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvilleri \u00fczerinde put pozisyonlar\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor. Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %83\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, sabit getirili piyasalarda \u201cpara politikas\u0131nda mola\u201d umudunun ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 terk edildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 187 binlik i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131yla \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131 varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemekten ziyade enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi \u00f6ncelemek zorunda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede, temmuz hisse e\u011filimi i\u00e7in son savunma hatt\u0131 olarak 51.500 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 52.000 seviyesine do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, piyasan\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler olarak de\u011fil, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden y\u00fcklemek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Endeks 52.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden ba\u015faramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, olas\u0131 askeri aksiyonlara do\u011fru geri say\u0131m s\u00fcrerken i\u015flem e\u011filimimiz net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n