EUR\/USD, geni\u015fleyen Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve daha \u015fahin bir Fed beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi desteklemesi sonucu Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi, ancak karar piyasada s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yank\u0131 buldu. Parite 1,1379 civar\u0131nda, son \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n seyrederken; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,94 dip seviyesinden tepki verdikten sonra 101,40 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite 1,1350 \u00fczerinde taban olu\u015fturmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ancak 1,1415\u2019teki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ve 1,1504\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 1,1576\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA da daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: RSI 39 ile 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif b\u00f6lgede. Diren\u00e7ler 1,1415, ard\u0131ndan 1,1504 ve 1,1576 seviyelerinde; 1,1700 \u00f6ncesinde. Destek 1,1350\u2019de; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 derinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin devam\u0131na t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcresel Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini besliyor. Bu makro bask\u0131 Euro \u00fczerinde belirgin bir y\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor; \u00f6zellikle de ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,1415 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece EUR\/USD\u2019de ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiyi tercih ediyoruz. RSI\u2019\u0131n 39 seviyesinde bulunmas\u0131 ve n\u00f6tr kabul edilen 50 e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 negatif momentumu teyit ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya spot piyasada k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131; koruyucu zarar-kes (stop) seviyesini 1,1415\u2019in hemen \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftirmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 seansta 1,1350\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fi \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 1,1200\u2019e do\u011fru daha derin kay\u0131plar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir; bu b\u00f6lge tarihsel olarak \u00f6nemli bir psikolojik bariyer i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Deste\u011fin korunmas\u0131 halinde ise 1,1504\u2019e do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fczeltme y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin, daha uygun seviyelerden yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n