Sterlin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 daha uzun bir ABD kampanyas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar s\u0131ras\u0131nda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu G8 para birimini vurmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde geriledi. GBP\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3393 zirvesine dokunduktan sonra 1,3313 seviyesindeydi. Hareket, dolar rallisinin h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131yla pariteyi 1,3400 b\u00f6lgesini yeniden kazanmakta zorlan\u0131r hale getirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Daha sonra sterlin yatayla\u015ft\u0131 ancak 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en hafta 1,3558\u2019den geri d\u00f6nmesinin ard\u0131ndan haftal\u0131k bazda %0,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neldi. Zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verileri bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, Asya i\u015flemlerinde parite yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3385\u2019e toparland\u0131; kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n, s\u00fcren b\u00f6lgesel gerilimler ve beklentiden serin gelen fiyat verileriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ard\u0131ndan dikkat, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar raporuna \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda net bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,3558\u2019deki son zirvesinden 1,3300 seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sterlin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrebilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar likidite aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni tek bir ay i\u00e7inde ortalama %4 y\u00fckseltmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n
Bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur da zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verileri ve Ba\u015fbakan Andrew Burnham\u2019\u0131n geni\u015flemeci harcamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan endi\u015felerin sterlin \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu y\u00fck. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu son d\u00f6nemde \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %2,0 hedefinin alt\u0131na inerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla 1,3150 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar raporu \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitenin de y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacminin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 7,5 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi k\u00fcresel FX piyasas\u0131nda, perakende verilerindeki ani de\u011fi\u015fimler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 tasfiye dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek volatiliteden yararlanan uzun strangle stratejilerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Uzayan bir askeri harek\u00e2t tehdidi g\u00fcndemde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Brent petrol\u00fcndeki son oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenli liman dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc enerji piyasalar\u0131 da izlenmeli. Beklenmedik diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131rken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda net k\u0131sa GBP\/USD pozisyonunun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n