{"id":51576,"date":"2026-07-23T21:30:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T21:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolar-talebini-artirip-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirinca-sterlin-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T21:30:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T21:30:25","slug":"orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolar-talebini-artirip-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirinca-sterlin-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolar-talebini-artirip-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirinca-sterlin-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar talebini art\u0131r\u0131p Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131nca sterlin geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik daha uzun s\u00fcrebilecek bir kampanya y\u00fcr\u00fctebilece\u011fi spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131yla G8 FX piyasalar\u0131nda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucu ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. GBP\/USD %0,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3393 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3313 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken parite 1,3300 band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin deste\u011fiyle %0,32 art\u0131\u015fla 101,46\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

18 Temmuz\u2019da sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 212 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 187 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerinin yeniden canlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131nda, Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %33 seviyesinden %40\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken, faizi sabit tutma ihtimali %60 olarak fiyatland\u0131. Grafik taraf\u0131nda GBP\/USD 1,3308 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve 1,3369\u2019daki 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ilave seviyeler olarak 1,3474 ve 1,3517 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131; RSI (14) 44 seviyesindeydi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k takviminde Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve Temmuz GfK t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni yer al\u0131rken, ABD takviminde S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Y\u00f6nl\u00fc T\u00fcrev Stratejileri ve Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Paritenin 1,3300 seviyesine do\u011fru sarkmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmeliyiz. Spot fiyatlar\u0131n 1,3369\u2019daki kritik 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak GBP\/USD bu \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum takip eden iki haftada ortalama %1,5 ila %2 h\u0131zlanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 187 bine gerilemesi, 29 Temmuz Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u00e2len %60 ile \u201cpas\u201d senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Fund vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na karar vermesi halinde, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Portf\u00f6y Korunmas\u0131 ve Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Suudi Aramco petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 tehditleri g\u00fcndemdeyken, enerji maliyetlerinde ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerimizi aktif bi\u00e7imde hedge etmemiz gerekiyor. 2019 Abqaiq sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da benzer jeopolitik \u015foklarda Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Brent\u2019te kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya enerji vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 dengelemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kritik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi ve S&P Global PMI\u2019lar yakla\u015f\u0131rken, GBP\/USD ima edilen volatilitesinin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Her iki y\u00f6ne keskin hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileriyle bu beklenen dalgalanmadan yararlanabiliriz. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 haftaya denk geldi\u011fi y\u00fcksek riskli d\u00f6nemlerde, maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilite s\u0131kl\u0131kla %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik risk ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar sterlini vurdu: GBP\/USD 1,3300\u2019e sarkt\u0131. Zay\u0131f teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm putlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fsizlik verisi Fed art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Volatilite-hedge stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}