WTI, Kuzey Amerika \u00f6\u011fleden sonra i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 y\u00fckselerek 91,00 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 art\u0131\u015fla 95,00 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve her iki g\u00f6stergeyi de haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki seviyelere geri ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ralli tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti; geri \u00e7ekilmeler dakikalar i\u00e7inde kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131 ve spot ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren vadeli kontratlar, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir tepki yerine yeniden fiyatlamaya i\u015faret etti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc hareket, WTI\u2019nin 84,00 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 79,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledikten sonra yeniden y\u00fckselerek 83,00 dolar\u0131 test etti\u011fi pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tersine bir tablo \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n
WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k 86,50 dolardan 91,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselirken Brent kabaca 90,50 dolardan 95,00 dolar\u0131 test etti; yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 dolarl\u0131k geri \u00e7ekilmeler ve Stokastik osilat\u00f6rde tekrarlayan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde WTI, sadece \u00fc\u00e7 haftay\u0131 biraz a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrede temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 67,00 dolar civar\u0131ndaki dibinin %33\u2019ten fazla \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; WTI yak\u0131n vade 92,00 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken Brent yak\u0131n vade ise may\u0131stan bu yana ilk kez yeniden 100,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Arka planda K\u00f6rfez \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi h\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131nda seyretmesi, bo\u011fazdan tanker trafi\u011finin normalin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne inmesi, \u0130ran varillerine yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde bulunmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; teknik olarak 91,00 ve 95,00 dolar diren\u00e7leri, ard\u0131ndan 104,00, 107,00 ve 100,00 dolar seviyeleri ile 86,50, 85,00 dolar; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n WTI\u2019da 81,00 dolar civar\u0131 ve Brent\u2019te benzerinin 85,50 dolar civar\u0131 destekleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici man\u015fet kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yap\u0131sal yeniden fiyatlamaya do\u011fru belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. WTI 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken ve Brent 95 dolar\u0131 test ederken, istikrarl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n saat i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeleri agresif bi\u00e7imde kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 i\u015flemcileri bu ralliyi a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u0131rakmal\u0131; zira piyasa jeopolitik riskleri art\u0131k ge\u00e7ici bir g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc olarak fiyatlam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle normalde g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ak\u0131\u015f ta\u015f\u0131yan ve k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini temsil eden H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 nedeniyle, ciddi fiziksel arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131yla destekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n \u015fekilde yakla\u015f\u0131k 375 milyon varilde bulunuyor; bu da piyasay\u0131 so\u011futacak tamponun neredeyse kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu fiziksel k\u0131tl\u0131klar\u0131n, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u201csava\u015f primi\u201dnin fiyatlama yap\u0131s\u0131na aktif bi\u00e7imde in\u015fa edildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (bullish bias) korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m g\u00f6stergeleriyle tepe yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak yerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Brent yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere do\u011fru h\u0131zla ivmelenebilir. 86,50 dolardaki WTI\u2019n\u0131n en yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131n\u0131 referans alarak, s\u0131\u011f geri \u00e7ekilmelerde uzun pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI 86,50 dolar b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, fiyatlar\u0131n bir sonraki ana diren\u00e7 olan 95,00 dolar\u0131 zorlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve nisan zirvesi olan 107,00 dolar civar\u0131na do\u011fru net bir patika olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bununla birlikte, 85,00 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131; bu, spek\u00fclatif ve d\u00fczensiz volatilitenin yeniden fiyat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyalimiz olacakt\u0131r. Bu kilit destek k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a, fiziksel trendle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma cazibesinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n