{"id":51571,"date":"2026-07-23T20:29:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:29:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ecb-lagardein-eylulde-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-oncesinde-secenekleri-acik-tutmasiyla-politika-faizini-225te-sabit-tuttu\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T20:29:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:29:14","slug":"ecb-lagardein-eylulde-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-oncesinde-secenekleri-acik-tutmasiyla-politika-faizini-225te-sabit-tuttu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecb-lagardein-eylulde-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-oncesinde-secenekleri-acik-tutmasiyla-politika-faizini-225te-sabit-tuttu\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB, Lagarde\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Beklentileri \u00d6ncesinde Se\u00e7enekleri A\u00e7\u0131k Tutmas\u0131yla Politika Faizini %2,25\u2019te Sabit Tuttu"},"content":{"rendered":"

ECB, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 temel politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek mevduat faizini, beklentiler ve piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131yla uyumlu \u015fekilde %2,25\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Christine Lagarde, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son hareketlerin ard\u0131ndan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn Haziran\u2019daki baz senaryoya geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve risk de\u011ferlendirmesinin de Sintra konferans\u0131nda risklerin \u201cdaha dengeli\u201d oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden Haziran ile uyumlu hale geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Lagarde, gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u201ctam opsiyonelli\u011fi\u201d korudu ve \u00f6nceden taahh\u00fctte bulunmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Piyasalar karara tepki vermedi. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de nihai 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f beklentisi ortaya kondu; bu ad\u0131m mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n

Sabit Faiz ve Opsiyonelli\u011fin \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\n

ECB\u2019nin Temmuz\u2019da mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de son bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Ba\u015fkan Lagarde\u2019\u0131n n\u00f6tr tonuna neredeyse hi\u00e7 reaksiyon vermemesi nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131 \u015fu anda bu muhtemel ad\u0131m\u0131 eksik fiyatl\u0131yor. A\u011fustos\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ekonomik verilerin piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinden \u00f6nce, y\u00fckselen getirilerden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl Karar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel olarak, \u201ctam opsiyonellik\u201d i\u00e7eren duraklamalar, yeni Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda keskin piyasa ayarlamalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Halihaz\u0131rda Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,9 seviyesinde yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde harekete ge\u00e7me y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kolayl\u0131kla bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, mevcut fiyatlaman\u0131n %2,50\u2019ye bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tam olarak yans\u0131tmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu farktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA) veya Euro Short-Term Rate (\u20acSTR) swaplar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl vadeli Euribor kontratlar\u0131nda put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, bu koruyucu opsiyonlar\u0131 normalde olaca\u011f\u0131ndan daha ucuz hale getiriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda at\u0131lacak bu ad\u0131mlar, daha geni\u015f piyasa ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131na tepki vermeden \u00f6nce getiri ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB Temmuz\u2019da faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu; Lagarde \u201ctam opsiyonellik\u201d mesaj\u0131yla piyasa sakin. Ancak Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f riski eksik fiyatlan\u0131yor: \u20acSTR\/EONIA swap ve Euribor putlar\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51571\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}