WTI Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n arz kesintisi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fiyatlar bu ay \u015fu ana kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 artarken, y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Yemen\u2019in Ensar Allah\u2019\u0131n\u0131n Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda iki Suudi petrol tankerine sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u0131z kazand\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n kendi egemenli\u011fi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD askeri operasyonlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e ge\u00e7i\u015fin \u201ctamamen kapal\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu ifade etmesi sonras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k riski de g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, WTI 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalarak y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu; bu ortalamalar yakla\u015f\u0131k 75,50\u201388,20 dolar band\u0131nda k\u00fcmeleniyor. MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, RSI 71 seviyesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti. Diren\u00e7 95,00 dolar civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 105 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015faretlenirken; destek seviyeleri 88,20, 82,40 ve 80,00 dolar olarak belirtiliyor; bunun ard\u0131ndan 75,52 dolar ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 67 dolar taban\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol 95,00 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na do\u011frudan uzun vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (long futures) temkinli olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Emtia bu Temmuz\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 90,50 dolar civar\u0131na geldi\u011finden, piyasa ani k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131na olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k. Ralliyi do\u011frudan kovalamak yerine, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 ek fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na maruziyeti korumak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20,5 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7i\u015fine imk\u00e2n sa\u011fl\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ger\u00e7ek bir kesinti fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca bir sonraki hedefimiz olan 105 dolara itebilir. Ancak artan jeopolitik risk, ima edilen volatiliteyi sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yarak do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a pahal\u0131 hale getirdi. Bu y\u00fcksek primleri dengelemek ve diplomatik kanallar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda volatilitede ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in dikey spread\u2019ler (vertical spreads) veya takvim spread\u2019lerinin (calendar spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 71\u2019in \u00fczerinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyali \u00fcretmesi nedeniyle, tarihsel veriler ralli yeniden ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce %5 ila %10 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir teknik d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 88,20 dolardaki ilk destek seviyesine daha yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerden veya 82,40 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131ndan olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz. Gelir odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 80,00 dolardaki yap\u0131sal tabana yak\u0131n seviyelerde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n