Commerzbank, Banxico\u2019nun son faiz indirimlerinin daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon ve zay\u0131flayan Meksika ekonomisi taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi\u011fini, bu nedenle piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Banka, \u0130ran\u2019da sava\u015f\u0131n patlak vermesinin ard\u0131ndan Meksika para politikas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekilde kurun izleyen aylarda zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan sonra, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 devreye girmeden \u00f6nce bu beklentilerin ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131n pesoda bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n
Kurum ayr\u0131ca ABD kaynakl\u0131 etkenlere de i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar birka\u00e7 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklerken, Commerzbank faiz indirimleri y\u00f6n\u00fcnde siyasi bask\u0131ya at\u0131fta bulundu. Fed\u2019e dair bu beklentiler fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karsa bankaya g\u00f6re dolar zay\u0131flar, bunun sonucu olarak USD\/MXN d\u00fc\u015fer; Commerzbank da USD\/MXN tahminlerini t\u00fcm projeksiyon ufku boyunca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize etti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem trader\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n Banxico\u2019nun politika patikas\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamaya pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi son derece ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fil. Son veriler, Meksika\u2019da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda yaln\u0131zca %1,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise %4,0\u2019a do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (TIIE) halihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da trader\u2019lar i\u00e7in sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde cazip bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Kur opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda, USD\/MXN kurunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeden (downward drift) faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6neriyoruz. Meksika\u2019ya ili\u015fkin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi pesoyu ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flatabilse de, yumu\u015fayan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bu bask\u0131y\u0131 muhtemelen dengelemesi bekleniyor. USD\/MXN \u00fczerinde \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay vadeli bear put spread\u2019ler uygulamak, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yakalamaya olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ana kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in gerek\u00e7esiz \u015fahinli\u011fini (hawkishness) fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 olacak. ABD imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 48,5 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131 ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri y\u00f6n\u00fcnde artan siyasi bask\u0131 ortam\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ayarlanarak dolar primini ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve USD\/MXN\u2019i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Meksika\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dinamikleri son derece destekleyici kal\u0131yor; ABD\u2019ye ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 475 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu istikrarl\u0131 ticari talep, s\u00fcrekli bir dolar giri\u015fi sa\u011flayarak, yurti\u00e7i faiz beklentileri gerilese bile pesoya yap\u0131sal bir tampon olu\u015fturuyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in trader\u2019lar, risk reversal stratejileriyle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n