{"id":51565,"date":"2026-07-23T18:29:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/lagarde-temmuzda-faiz-artisi-soylemiyle-veriye-bagli-oynaklik-riskleri-yukselirken-ecbnin-faizi-oybirligiyle-sabit-birakacagi-sinyalini-verdi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T18:29:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:29:09","slug":"lagarde-temmuzda-faiz-artisi-soylemiyle-veriye-bagli-oynaklik-riskleri-yukselirken-ecbnin-faizi-oybirligiyle-sabit-birakacagi-sinyalini-verdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/lagarde-temmuzda-faiz-artisi-soylemiyle-veriye-bagli-oynaklik-riskleri-yukselirken-ecbnin-faizi-oybirligiyle-sabit-birakacagi-sinyalini-verdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Lagarde, temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemiyle veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 oynakl\u0131k riskleri y\u00fckselirken ECB\u2019nin faizi oybirli\u011fiyle sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin politika faizlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme karar\u0131n\u0131n oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilip de\u011ferlendirilmeyece\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Politikan\u0131n beklemeye elveri\u015fli \u015fekilde konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Lagarde, bir sonraki karar \u00f6ncesinde herhangi bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Lagarde, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ECB\u2019nin elinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da yeni veri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle ikinci tur etkiler riskine dikkat kesildi\u011fini, ancak \u015fu a\u015famada b\u00f6yle etkiler g\u00f6rmediklerini belirtti. \u00dccretler konusunda ise kademeli gerilemenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n

ECB\u2019nin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme sunmadan kat\u0131 veri odakl\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle Euro K\u0131sa Vadeli Faiz Oran\u0131 (\u20acSTR) t\u00fcrevlerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Baz\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmi\u015f olmas\u0131, daha fazla gev\u015femeye giden patikan\u0131n piyasan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine, Euribor\u2019da para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) payer opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak \u015fahin risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Enflasyona Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ve Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

Mevcut Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki enflasyon krizinin \u00e7ift haneli zirvelerinden gerileyerek %2,0 hedefi civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,2 seviyesine \u0131l\u0131mlad\u0131. Ancak merkez bankas\u0131 ikinci tur etki sinyallerine son derece duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011finden, yakla\u015fan \u00fccret veya hizmet enflasyonu verilerinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir yukar\u0131 hareket bile sert yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyecek. Bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktan, Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131 ile G\u00fcney Avrupa tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha fazla a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alarak yararlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kapsaml\u0131 ekonomik g\u00f6sterge ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri her bir veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na agresif tepki verecek. Y\u00f6nsel bir pozisyona ba\u011flanmak yerine Euro cinsi faiz swaplar\u0131nda bant i\u00e7i i\u015flemi (range trading) \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda straddle pozisyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7mak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz dalgalanmalardan k\u00e2r etmeyi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz ihtimali masada: Lagarde, Temmuz\u2019da faizlerin oybirli\u011fiyle sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Forward guidance yok; Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesi yeni veriler oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131racak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51565\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}