EUR\/USD, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1385 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Ana refinansman faizi %2,4\u2019te kal\u0131rken, marjinal fonlama faizi %2,65\u2019te ve mevduat faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. ECB, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn son derece oynak oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, son enerji \u015fokunun enflasyonist etkilerinin hen\u00fcz tamamen fiyatlara yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 uyard\u0131. Kararlar\u0131n veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131na g\u00f6re toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineleyen banka, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin herhangi bir \u00f6n taahh\u00fcd\u00fc de reddetti.<\/p>\n
Euro bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, ABD dolar\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki t\u0131rmanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle destek buldu. ABD\u2019nin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 12\u2019nci geceye ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken, \u0130ran \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef alarak misillemede bulundu. Arz riskleri ham petrol\u00fc de yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti: WTI, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Bab el-Mandeb \u00fczerinden trafi\u011fi tehdit etmesinin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu ayki y\u00fckseli\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %28\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de kuvvetlendi; CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %78 olarak fiyatlarken bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %52 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve ECB\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131na al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 1,1385 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi kazanm\u0131\u015fken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019de Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik \u015foklarda ABD Dolar Endeksi haftalar i\u00e7inde %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; benzer bir tekrar bug\u00fcn de kolayl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcrevleri de aktif \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeli; \u00f6zellikle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fiyatlar bu ay \u015fimdiden %28 y\u00fckselerek 89,50 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki arz kesintileri ham petrol\u00fc kolayl\u0131kla 100 dolar band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilir ve 2023 sonundaki enerji fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131ran bir tablo yaratabilir. Petrolde bull call spread stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131, bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, \u00f6denen prim riskini de s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fen Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dikkate alarak k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %78 g\u00f6stermesiyle, Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taktik hamle sunuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ECB net bir faiz patikas\u0131na ba\u011flanmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerinde n\u00f6tr stratejiler tercih edilmeli.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, VIX veya d\u00f6viz volatilitesi vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi volatilite ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kullanarak piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00d6nceki Orta Do\u011fu krizlerinde d\u00f6viz volatilitesi endeksleri tek bir ayda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde cezaland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n dalgal\u0131 seyrinde, pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmak ve tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon spread\u2019lerinden yararlanmak hayati olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n