Avustralya dolar\u0131, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 profiliyle desteklenerek y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kazan\u00e7lar kaydetti. Yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00f6n ise art\u0131k yurt i\u00e7i veriler ve politika sinyallerine ba\u011fl\u0131; bir sonraki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 11 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yap\u0131lacak ve odak \u00f6ncelikle gelecek haftaki \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile Ba\u015fkan Bullock\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131na kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Haziran istihdam\u0131 76,3 binlik art\u0131\u015fla geldi ve piyasalar\u0131n A\u011fustos hamlesine y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bloomberg anketi, 2\u00c7 k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE\u2019yi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 (\u00f6nceki %3,5) seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; faiz piyasalar\u0131nda ise alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k ufukta ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k RBA art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. RBA finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u201cmuhtemelen bir miktar k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirirken, hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminde ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan Avustralya d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviren unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, AUD\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 0,70 civar\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Avustralya dolar\u0131nda (AUD\/USD) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 0,70 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu para birimini desteklese de, bu olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Piyasa alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k ufukta 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ilave yukar\u0131 hareket alan\u0131 olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, beklenen ivme eksikli\u011finden faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor veya k\u0131sa straddle gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) t\u00fcrev stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde 2021 sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerilerken, ABD dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 sinyalleri verdi; bu da parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00fcst diren\u00e7 yarat\u0131yor. Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,70 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE enflasyon raporunun ve RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bullock\u2019un planl\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE %3,5\u2013%3,7 band\u0131nda seyretti\u011finde, RBA k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015funu korumu\u015f; bu da genellikle t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00f6nemli politika sinyallerinin, yerle\u015fik 0,70 i\u015flem band\u0131 i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ve sert dalgalanmalar tetikleyebilmesi nedeniyle pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri ihtiyatl\u0131 tutulmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n