Alt\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc gerileyerek d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131r\u0131rken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilim petrol\u00fcn kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. XAU\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi 4.165 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.050 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste on ikinci gece de sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlerken, Tahran \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD askeri \u00fcslerini hedef alarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki kesinti riski, Yemen\u2019deki Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na da yay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %29 y\u00fckselerek enflasyon endi\u015felerini ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch, piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %78 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (bir hafta \u00f6nce %52) g\u00f6sterirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,64 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve 20 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n, 4.068 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA civar\u0131nda zorland\u0131 ve 4.241 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 4.490 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 45 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 4.200 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.241 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, daha yukar\u0131da 4.400 ve 4.490 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; destek 4.000 dolarda, TD Securities ise 3.900 dolar\/ons seviyesine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar t\u0131rman\u0131rken alt\u0131n ve enerji piyasalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ham petrol bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %29 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, alt\u0131n 4.165 dolarl\u0131k son zirvesini koruyamayarak 4.050 dolara geriledi. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda, piyasada Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini %78\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yan y\u00fckselen enflasyon endi\u015feleri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.068 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n savunmac\u0131, getiri \u00fcreten opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 4.200 dolardaki diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d ay\u0131 (bear) call spread satmak, alt\u0131n teknik olarak bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz getirili varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi nedeniyle alt\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunu korumakta zorlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n kritik psikolojik destek olan 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, bir sonraki ana taban olan 3.900 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Bu olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 i\u015flem stratejisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in put opsiyonu ya da bor\u00e7lu (debit) put spread al\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Tarihsel veriler, y\u00fcksek faiz bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u201cyuvarlak rakam\u201d seviyelerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin iki hafta i\u00e7inde %3 ila %5 h\u0131zlanma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131, petrol volatilitesinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumuna kat\u0131l\u0131rken risk maruziyetini s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in WTI \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa (bull) call spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda petrol opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n z\u0131mni volatilitesi %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirdi; bu nedenle spread stratejileri belirgin \u015fekilde daha fazla tercih ediliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek tahvil faizleri, alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ani y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kal\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; son zirvelerin \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Piyasa Fed\u2019in bir sonraki faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netilmesi kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n