ABD dolar\u0131, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki tankerleri hedef alan Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik riski art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 itmesinin ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol y\u00fckselirken de\u011fer kaybetti. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Karadeniz\u2019deki altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Rusya ve Kazakistan\u2019da arz kesintileri ya\u015fan\u0131rken, Kpler verileri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fin dokuz gemiye geriledi\u011fini ve Bab\u2019\u00fcl Mendep ge\u00e7i\u015finin 44\u2019ten 29\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90, Fed\u2019inkini ise %77 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da ECB i\u00e7in iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60 iken Fed i\u00e7in %56 seviyesinde ima ediliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE\u2019si \u015eubat\u2019ta %1,9\u2019dan May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek ECB\u2019yi mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131p %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmaya y\u00f6neltti; ard\u0131ndan Haziran\u2019da %2,8\u2019e geriledi. Japonya\u2019da ise USDJPY d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 51 uzman\u0131n %53\u2019\u00fc gecelik faizin Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar %1\u2019den %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini, %35\u2019i ise hamlenin Ekim\u2019de gelebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85-90 dolar band\u0131nda oynak kalmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kontratlarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son sevkiyat verileri, Bab\u2019\u00fcl Mendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f hacminin normal seviyelere k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor; bu da navlun maliyetlerini ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada artan arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fahin beklentilerle y\u00fckselen EUR\/USD paritesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. ECB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Christine Lagarde\u2019dan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa ili\u015fkin daha agresif bir s\u00f6ylem Euro\u2019yu yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Ani bir piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fcksek volatiliteden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde de dikkat \u00e7ekici bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ECB art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90, Fed\u2019inki ise %77 olarak yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011finden, Avrupa d\u00fczenleyicisinin ilk ad\u0131m\u0131 atmaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir motivasyonu var. Farkl\u0131la\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 patikalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Eurocurrency ve Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Japon Yeni\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz; zira s\u00f6ylentiler, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gecelik faizi beklenenden daha erken %1,25\u2019e art\u0131rabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Son anketler, ekonomistlerin %53\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f yapanlar\u0131 pozisyon kapatmaya zorluyor. Yen toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n